How Important is Rarity
From the 1804 Bust Dollar to Papua New Guinea’s 100 Kina, rarity shapes value—but demand, history, and survival rates often matter just as much as the numbers.
Multiple factors are involved in assessing the value of numismatic items. Among them are supply, demand, condition, and, if applicable, precious metal content.
Factors that affect demand are the number of collectors for a particular nation, the historical significance of an item, and the available catalog and other research references. Multiple times, demand to collect a particular numismatic niche has increased once a reference catalog is published on that subject.
The question of rarity is again relevant with the discovery of the US 1804 Bust Dollar in the James Stack collection coming up for auction soon. Previously, all research reported 15 known specimens of the 1804 Bust Dollar among three classes of production. The coin in the Stack collection becomes the 16th known survivor.
How much will the existence of one more known 1804 Bust Dollar impact the market value of this and the already known surviving specimens? In my judgment, the appearance of this additional coin will have little to no impact. The reasons are that there are more than 16 collectors who would want to own this coin and have the financial resources to purchase it. US coins are the most widely collected of any nation. There are multiple books and articles that have been published on the 1804 Bust Dollars. The 1804 Bust Dollar will continue to be one of the greatest trophy coins that any collector could aspire to own. The discovery of one more specimen does little to impact its rarity.
In contrast, look at the Papua New Guinea 100 Kina Gold coin struck from 1975 to 1977 in Matte condition. Each year only 100 coins were struck. Such coins are obvious rarities, but how much are they worth?
First, these coins were marketed to collectors rather than being put into circulation. As a consequence, almost all pieces have survived and remain in pristine condition. Second, how many people collect coins of Papua New Guinea? Third, there were also uncirculated and proof versions of the 1975 to 1977 100 Kina struck, adding 3,762 to more than 26,000 specimens of the coin each year.
The question of worth is relevant because back in the 1990s, we were contacted by a collector who owned 32 specimens of one of these 100 mintage coins, asking how much our company would offer to purchase the lot. Rarity was obviously a positive, but the other negatives about potentially limited demand resulted in our making an offer of 99.5% of the value of the gold content of the coins. The collector told us our offer was the highest he had received from any dealer, but he just couldn’t see selling the coins for that price.
For another example of how value can be impacted as rarity changes, look at the 1714 Gloucester Shilling Token struck in brass. The obverse featured the Gloucester Courthouse in Virginia. These are likely the first privately issued tokens in the Colonies. For more than 100 years, it was considered that there were only two surviving specimens. When one of these pieces was sold in a 1976 auction, it was discovered to be a cast counterfeit. That meant there was only a single known genuine survivor.
A second specimen became known in 1981, which was auctioned in 1982 for $300,000. Not long after, a third specimen, dated 1715, was found by someone using a metal detector. How much would that be worth? A number of experts considered it might also be worth up to $300,000 as it would be unique for the date. Auction bidding only reached $30,000 for it. I don’t recall if it actually sold or if it did not sell because it did not reach its reserve price.
Calculating the effect of rarity on value continues to be an art, not a science.
Last column’s numismatic trivia question.
Last time I asked—Which language(s) is/are used for the text on US coins? Most text is in English, but “E Pluribus Unum” is a phrase in Latin that translates into “Out of many, one.”
This week’s trivia question
Here is this week’s question. Which design element on Brutus’s Ides of March Roman Silver Denarius has also appeared on some US coins? Come back next week for the answer.
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