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Coins are in a Narrow Trading Range

“Gold prices should target $1,700 next quarter.”

“Gold, silver gain as geopolitical worries resurface.”

“Gold prices to stay elevated.”

Many recent headlines suggest that if you have an interest in coins, perhaps now is the time to buy.

“Higher prices are likely ahead!”

Is this a form of irrational exuberance? Perhaps your interest in coins is from an investor’s view. Perhaps it is from the view of a true collector who is out for the ride, enjoying the hobby. Such headlines may encourage buying, but such headlines can also spell disappointment if the metals and the coins impacted by the price of metals don’t perform well.

Right now, it appears coins – be they readily available yet collectible, grade rarities or coins in the scarce to rare category – are in a narrow trading range. This range does show some weakness, noticeably in the denominations below the silver dollar denomination. There is no defining pattern. There are coins increasing modestly in price while others decline.

Scarcity doesn’t appear to be playing a role. The price of some grade or date rarities is soft, while some dates that might be viewed as mundane have increased recently. This trading range is likely good for the hobby, since stable prices may encourage not only buying but selling as well. It would be a plus to see the value of more coins follow demand than follow the spot price of their metal content, but we have yet to reach this point in the current numismatic market.