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Will Chronicles set sell out?

The final 50,000 proof 2009 Abraham Lincoln commemorative silver dollars will finally hit the market Oct. 15 when the Lincoln Coin and Chronicles Set is placed on sale by the U.S. Mint.

Price of the set is $55.95 and there will be a five-set-per-household limit imposed. (Reduced to one, 9/29)

It has been roughly six months since the proof and uncirculated versions of the Lincoln commemorative silver dollar sold out rapidly. There were 325,000 proofs sold and 125,000 uncirculateds taken by collectors in just six weeks to bring total sales to 450,000 coins.

In contrast, sales of Louis Braille silver dollars are just over 165,000 after being on sale since March.

Overall, there is a limit of 500,000 on the Lincoln commemorative silver dollars, so the Chronicles set will have a maximum run of 50,000.

Potential buyers will be doing the math to see if a sellout of this final tranche of Lincoln dollars is likely and making mental projections as to possible profits from selling them on the secondary market.

If every buyer takes the maximum, it will take only 10,000 buyers to grab the entire issue. (Changed to 50,000, 9/29)

After potential buyers are done with all of their calculations, will they notice how good the set looks? I hope so. It is well done, but I know that art takes second place to calculations of scarcity.

In this Year of Lincoln, do you think this set will sell out?