Which silver offer is golden?

What difference does it make in price if one section of numismatics is currently hot as a pistol and another is relatively sleepy?

A lot.

I have often written that collectors should resist the urge to join in buying in the popular areas and instead find an area of the hobby that is overlooked.

That way, whenwhen this sleepy area wakes up, these independent collectors will reap the benefit of their foresight.

But can I prove this?

I have a couple of current offers to cite and then you can make up your own mind.

Currently, Chinese silver coins are hot, hot, hot.

On Friday I received an email offer by a distributor of 2012 5-ounce Chinese Panda coins.

The maximum mintage is 50,000 and the price is $399 each.

Today also happens to be the day that the U.S. Mint will begin selling its 2012 silver 5-ounce Chaco Culture National Historical Park coins.

Price?

Why it’s just $204.95.

Maximum mintage is 25,000 and the way prior issues have been selling, the actual number will probably be less.

So what do you think a smart buyer should do?

Pay twice as much for a coin with a supply twice as large because it is presently a hot area, or pay half as much for a coin supply of half as many in an area that has cooled off quite a bit since the first designs were offered?

I think the answer is clear.

Don’t you?

Buzz blogger Dave Harper is editor of the weekly newspaper "Numismatic News."