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Scary silver story?

I checked my silver records again this morning. Today is the 24th trading day since the April 29 peak price of $48.58 a troy ounce that coincidentally occurred during the Central States Numismatic Society convention in Chicago.

In 1980, the close on the 24th day after the record high was set was $34.56 a troy ounce. Checking the Kitco site as I write this I see the current price is $35.24. A lot can happen in the next few hours, but I still find it remarkable that there is only a 68-cent difference for days 31 years apart.

On other days in the last few weeks, the gap was even narrower.

I should also note that two days ago, the close on the 22nd trading day after this year’s peak, silver’s price was $37.69 as compared to a price of $31 in 1980. Obviously, there is a price swoon and recovery in the 1980 pattern that has not occurred in 2011.

Mark Twain said history doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes, so we will have to continue to wait until June 21 to see if silver in 2011 resists the complete breakdown it suffered in 1980 by falling under $30 on the 36th day of post-record trading.

In 1980 that breakdown took silver all the way down to $10.80 just 49 days after the high was put in.

Will it happen again?


Or this information could turn out to be just an adult version of the summertime scary camp-out stories that were told at night around the fire when I was a kid.