Kennedy provides gold(en) opportunity

What would modern numismatics be without a buying frenzy?

The Mint has teed up another new product and it will be made available at its booth Aug. 5-9 at the American Numismatic Association World’s Fair of Money in the Chicago suburb of Rosemont, Ill.

A dual-dated 1964-2014 Kennedy half dollar in gold will be sold.

There was a buying frenzy at the convention last year for the reverse proof 2013 gold Buffalo one-ounce coin. In the end, 47,836 were sold.

There was a bigger buyer frenzy in late March at the Whitman show in Baltimore surrounding the release of the cupped Baseball Hall of Fame gold, silver and clad coins.

Rapid sellouts were achieved at the show and through the Mint’s website of 50,000 gold $5 coins and 400,000 silver dollars.

Why would anyone waste time standing in line at a show when he can buy the same coins at home by the convenient use of his home computer?

It’s the grading service special labels.

What’s it worth to have a coin that is certified as issued at the Baltimore show?

Quite a lot.

This formula will be tried again with the Kennedy coin at ANA.

Will it be an even bigger event than the Baltimore baseball release?

Could be.

Unless the secondary market for baseball coins crashes between now and Aug. 5, you can be sure eager speculator buyers will line up at the show for gold Kennedy coins.

The only two questions are how large will initial sales be at the show and will the secondary market reward buyers there with juicy profits as occurred with the Baltimore coin release?

I think it is a dead certainty that a buyer’s frenzy will occur at ANA, but without knowing issue price and how many that might be sold, it is not a certainty to bet on a price gain.

Gold is expensive. A small number of gold Kennedy half dollars can be bid quite high on the secondary market, but as the numbers grow, the ultimate secondary market price will be lower because it takes larger and larger sums from buyers to keep the game going.

The greater the number of buyers at the show and the greater the number of coins sold, the less successful the coin will be in the long term.

But now nobody cares about the long run. British economist John Maynard Keynes famously quipped that in the long run we are all dead.

On that first day at ANA, the market for gold Kennedy half dollars will be very much alive. I plan to be there to witness it. How about you?

Buzz blogger Dave Harper is winner of the 2013 Numismatic Literary Guild Award for Best Blog and is editor of the weekly newspaper "Numismatic News."