Skip to main content

Gold pattern might be broken

Did gold close yesterday higher than $1,412 an ounce?

No? Not even close?

It made a heck of a run, though, up $61.60 in one day, but it still fell short of $1,412. The closing price was $1,369.40.

What’s so important about that?

Well, perhaps yesterday’s market action is a strong signal that the market fluctuations in the price of gold have decisively broken with the pattern that in recent months has been following the one after the January 1980 high.

Since April’s surprise and stunning $200 two-day loss in the price of gold the pattern has been compellingly close. It forecast lower prices May 10, May 31 and June 19. For the first two dates the 1980 pattern repeated exactly and the June 19 one was a day off.

Then the 1980 pattern forecast a bounce back in the price peaking on the day after Labor Day, Sept. 4. Again it was spookily close.

However, if the pattern would continue to hold, the price of gold yesterday should have recovered all of its loss and actually exceeded the $1,412 price of the day after Labor Day.

All good things come to an end, but perhaps bullion investors should hope that somehow the pattern will come back into force because it basically forecasts higher prices for the next three months. It may happen, but I am less enthusiastic about counting days on a calendar than I was back when I wrote my May 1 blog pointing out the possibility that the 1980 trading pattern could repeat itself.

If on the last trading day of the year gold is $200 higher than it is now, then I will have to take out these old 1980 price tables again for a closer look.

Buzz blogger Dave Harper is winner of the 2013 Numismatic Literary Guild Award for Best Blog and is editor of the weekly newspaper "Numismatic News."