Can the Value of Gold Last?
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The long-term value of gold coins is in question. The precious metal's spot price is at an all-time high, but can it last? What is the future supply versus demand? A recent S&P report indicates 350 discoveries of minable gold made between 1990 and 2023. These contain about 2.9 billion ounces, a figure that represents a three percent rise on the 2023 analysis, which listed 345 gold discoveries with a yield of 2.81 billion ounces. This may sound impressive. However, most of these assets were discovered decades ago. The five truly new discoveries contributed to just 22 percent of the 79 million ounces added to the 2024 update.
According to S&P research analyst Paul Manalo, “Based on the latest monthly Gold Commodity Briefing Service, we expect gold supply to peak in 2026 at 110 million ounces, driven by increased production [in] Australia, Canada and the U.S. — countries that also account for the most discovered gold.” In other words, gold supplies are expected to fall to 103 million ounces in 2028.
The other side of this coin is the gold coinage available. Collectors Corner recently listed 1,291 Liberty and another 895 Saint Gaudens $20 Double Eagles as well as 828 Liberty and 339 Indian $10 half eagles for sale—many of them being generic dates rather than rarities. At that same moment, spot gold peaked at $2,595, and APMEX was selling random date Uncirculated one ounce Gold American Eagles for $2,702, a gap from bullion value of $107, or about a four percent markup. You could purchase a third-party Mint State 62 slabbed Liberty $20 at Collectors Corner for $2,825 and a Saint Gaudens in the same grade for $2,745. These are modest markups.
What will happen when new supplies of gold begin declining? Are there so many gold coins available it won’t matter? Yes, the long-term value of gold coins is in question.
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