From the Jan. 17, 2020 Numismatic News E-NewsLetter
How do you predict the coin market will fare in 2020?
Here are some answers sent in from our E-Newsletter readers.
Considering the U.S. Mint screwed up the sale of the 2019 S silver eagle in November, many are extremely disturbed and upset including me. I have reason to believe that dealers were paying persons $100 to create a fake account and try to purchase these coins. I’m led to believe this because many sellers on eBay and other sites have more than one of these coins to sell, yet the U.S. Mint had a one per household limit. Pretty suspicious. The integrity and trust of the U.S. Mint is the lowest in decades.
Furthermore, the valuation of coins through NGC and PCGS is not accurate and many are requesting a new way to factor value. The values are being derived from sales on sites such as Amazon, eBay, and other auction sites, yet buyers on these sites are seeking low prices and deals...not retail. Despite the “low populations” of many coins in correlation with their mintage numbers, the values are extremely low because the sales amounts were low, which should not matter. I personally have created a valuation to correct this flaw, yet NGC and PCGS refuse to acknowledge it.
In conclusion, the coin market should be flat and until the U.S. Mint can correct their mistake of the silver eagle, many will not buy and others will leave the market. That said until the values are accurate to “populations” and not sales figures, still, more will leave or not purchase as much.
I am not sure how gold will fare, but it will be based on demand. As for silver, I believe it will go up. I think bullion will be so-so but metals with the utilitarian and numismatic worth will go up. High Grade, rare, and historic coins will always be in demand and every collector has her/his preferences, desires or wants and what they are willing to pay.
As long as people have faith in the marketplace and are comfortable with the decisions being made in Washington, then the coin market will have nothing to fear. It would also help if gold and silver could operate in a free market without financial controls.
West Park, Fla.
I believe that the coin market will do okay, however, I do not believe that the coin collecting hobby will do well at all. Our hobby is aging faster than there are people who are interested in pursuing a collecting hobby of any kind, much less coins. The U.S. mint raises prices and or limits quantities at will so as to lock out the serious hobbyist with lower budgets. For example, the business strike 2020 S-mint A.T.B. quarters have just seen a price increase from $34.95 for a 100 coin bag to $38.95. Only a collector is interested enough in a coin to pay $.39 cents for a quarter that has no special quality for collecting. It is not Proof or even considered uncirculated other than the fact that it was never intended to be placed into circulation. Once this set is complete, I will be unable to collect any new offerings. I am going on 78 years old and I do not have the time to do so. Not that I do not want to.
I think from the leadership of the Trump administration and the great economics thereof, I see the future as very bright. Curren auctions results support this view of buyers/bidders having surplus funds to spend.
Dr. Ron Brown
A lot depends on the economy and the distribution of jobs/wealth. With so many folks having minimum wage jobs, they will not have “extra” money for luxuries. The upper echelons can only buy so much and a lot of them are too busy with other things.I see fewer and fewer young folks at coin fairs, too. I see a downturn of modest proportions in 2020.