There are some brighter spots appearing in the U.S. coin market, especially among Morgan silver dollars and other specialized areas of interest. I wouldn’t call this a rally yet, but within the past month there have been more price increases than have been seen in some time. I will add that there have been some price declines as well. The increases tend to be for coins that are particularly unusual in condition for the date rather representing what might become the basis for a broad based rally.
At the same time, questions are being raised about whether the major certification services have been lowering their standards and thereby increasing the supply of superior condition coins. While this remains an open question, dealers with whom I have spoken say they haven’t noticed any recent “gradeflation.” It is more likely some of the older collections now entering the market have not been previously certified, increasing the supply side of better-grade coins as a result.
The PCGS3000 Index is no longer declining by more than half a percent per month at which the index had been recently performing. The Numismatic Stock Index has remained almost constant at about 70 percent of its 52-week highs for the past three months. A number of factors appear to be at work, while desirable coins remain affordable to many active collectors.
Silver popped over $17 just after this week’s data was compiled. Coin price increases are ahead if silver stays strong.
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