Shifts In U.S. Type Gold Coin Rarities
Changes in third-party grading populations can reveal which U.S. gold coin types have become more common—and which may offer overlooked value.
There are many kinds of analyses that can be performed to try to identify undervalued or overvalued numismatic items. Such analyses can use available data, including mintage/printage statistics and third-party certification service population reports. Other considerations may include changes in precious metals content value, the release of new research, the overall change in prosperity within a country (such as the sizeable increase in India’s population considered to be middle class has resulted in a surge in demand for numismatic Indian coinage), changes in current coinage, and more.
One statistic I periodically track is the changes in the populations of U.S. Liberty and Indian Gold Coins certified by the Professional Coin Grading Service (PCGS) and Numismatic Guaranty Company (NGC). My most recent comparison between the population reports on April 7, 2026, and the total on May 29, 2020, shows that some types of these coins have become relatively more common, while others are now less common. They can help identify hoards that may have come onto the market.
In my analysis, I look at the combined populations of coins graded in a specific grade plus all higher grades, not solely for the change in the exact grade.
Here’s the percentage change for the various Mint State U.S. Liberty and Indian Gold Coin Types populations for the grade and all higher grades for PCGS/NGC-certified coins from May 29, 2020, to April 7, 2026.
| Type | MS-62+ | MS-63+ | MS-64+ | MS-65+ | MS-66+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1.00 Liberty Type 1 | +4.0% | +6.7% | +6.7% | +14.8% | +23.3% |
| $1.00 Indian Type 2 | +9.7% | +11.2% | +8.4% | +12.6% | +14.3% |
| $1.00 Indian Type 3 | +5.8% | +5.9% | +6.3% | +7.0% | +7.5% |
| $2.50 Liberty | +7.4% | +8.1% | +9.5% | +11.2% | +15.6% |
| $2.50 Indian | +8.8% | +10.3% | +11.5% | +18.4% | +37.7% |
| $3.00 Indian | +5.4% | +5.3% | +5.8% | +7.8% | +7.6% |
| $5.00 Liberty | +46.8% | +46.3% | +38.3% | +23.2% | +25.4% |
| $5.00 Indian | +39.0% | +29.8% | +16.0% | +15.5% | +22.8% |
| $10.00 Liberty | +19.8% | +27.1% | +29.0% | +54.8% | +111.3% |
| $10.00 Indian | +16.4% | +22.2% | +26.9% | +18.9% | +10.6% |
| $20.00 Liberty | +17.5% | +17.4% | +15.4% | +15.0% | +31.7% |
| $20.00 St. Gaudens | +12.1% | +13.5% | +13.2% | +12.0% | +11.5% |
| Total of All Types | +16.3% | +16.5% | +14.8% | +13.2% | +13.4% |
Although most of these coins would have increased in value partly from the rise in the gold spot prices, you would expect that types and grades that had larger percentage increases (such as MS-66 $2.50 Indians, MS-62 through MS-64 $5.00 Liberties, MS-62 $5.00 Indians, and MS-65 to MS-66 $10.00 Liberties), would have experienced lesser appreciation than types and grades with lower percentage increases (the $1.00 Liberty Type 1 being the most extreme example) in their populations.
Another factor among lower percentage increases among some types and grades is that before 2020 such coins had significant numismatic value above metal content, so numismatists were more aggressive in prior years in submitting such pieces for certification.
Obviously, such analyses can be broken down by comparing the No Motto and With Motto $5.00 and $10.00 Liberties, and the $20.00 St. Gaudens, and each of the three types of $20.00 Liberties. And, of course, an analysis of each specific date and mintmark can help identify those that have become more common or rarer than the overall change in the type population.
What other ways of analyzing coins and currency can you visualize to help identify undervalued bargains or overvalued pieces?
Last column’s numismatic trivia question.
Last time I asked—What was and is the legal tender status of U.S. Trade Dollars? The Coinage Act of 1873 created the Trade Dollars to compete with coins from Mexico and Spain used in East Asian commerce. They contain about 1.8 percent greater silver content than the later Morgan and Peace Silver Dollars. Initially, these coins were given legal tender status domestically for up to $5.00 in payment. After the world silver price fell, the U.S. government revoked their legal tender status in 1876. In 1887, the U.S. government established a six-month window where they could be exchanged at face value. From then until 1965, these coins had no legal tender status. The Coinage Act of 1965 made all coins and currencies issued by the United States legal tender for payment of all debts. However, since these coins then had numismatic value higher than face value, they no longer circulate in commerce.
This week’s trivia question
Here is this week’s question. Which person has appeared on the greatest number of types of U.S. circulating and commemorative coins? Come back next week for the answer.
Patrick A. Heller was honored as a 2019 FUN Numismatic Ambassador. He is also the recipient of the American Numismatic Association 2018 Glenn Smedley Memorial Service Award, the 2017 Exemplary Service Award, the 2012 Harry Forman National Dealer of the Year Award, and the 2008 Presidential Award. Over the years, he has also been honored by the Numismatic Literary Guild, Professional Numismatists Guild, National Coin & Bullion Association, and the Michigan State Numismatic Society. He is the communications officer of Liberty Coin Service in Lansing, Michigan, and writes “Liberty’s Outlook,” a quarterly newsletter on rare coins and precious metals subjects. He now volunteers with the National Coin & Bullion Association as its Industry Issues Advisor. Past newsletter issues can be viewed at www.libertycoinservice.com. Some of his radio commentaries, "Things You ‘Know’ That Just Aren’t So,” and “Important News You Need To Know,” can be heard at 8:45 a.m. Wednesday and Friday mornings on 1320-AM WILS in Lansing (which streams live and becomes part of the audio archives posted at www.1320wils.com).
For more market insights from Patrick A. Heller, click below.
