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Silver: worth a guess?

How about a little contest?

Last year the Mint sold 39,868,500 silver American Eagle bullion coins. It was a record year.

How many silver American Eagle bullion coins do you think the Mint will sell in 2012?

Will it be 40 million, 45 million, or higher?

Or do you expect a retreat to 35 million or fewer?

Share your thoughts with me.

You can post your comments here or you can email me at david.harper@fwmedia.com.

I will share the responses I receive in the pages of Numismatic News.

There is no prize for this except for earning bragging rights and the respect that goes with being right.

So how about it? How many?

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One Response to Silver: worth a guess?

  1. jayelder says:

    Great question. I remember one of last years questions was would silver break $50 ounce? I wrote it would not and average out hovering around $30-35 but be a wild ride up and down. Luck that is all it was. A WAG.

    A quick check of the last 7 years of annual fluctuation in silver reminds me of a few traits we seem to forget with all the hoopla going on now over $35 dollar an ounce prices. I digress from your question, but this is relative I think. Looking at the sales of Eagles in the last few years (thanks to this publication!) and the price of silver on a annual basis provides us with some good data at which to make a guess at the answer to your query. I am going to predict that there will only be 32,590,000 silver American Eagle bullion coins made this year.

    I believe that the production will exceed demand and that there will be a blank shortage (again) for the silver bullion for 1212. The price of silver will raise and there will be a run on the market . The Mint will not be able to keep up with the demand and run short of blanks. Thus the production rate will be less than last year. That and with the price raising this year many will not be able to buy in the historical quantities they have been. I think a combination of events will reduce the production down to under 33 million with a stoppage somewhere in the late summer. Remember this happening a few years back? Another one of your questions, should the Mint provide their own blanks! Hell yes.

    To stressful to play that gold/silver game. Oh ya the price of an ounce of sliver was $7 back in March of 2005. In 1980 (shades of Hunt Brothers) it was $50 for a very short while and lots of people got hurt. If it is to good to be true\ then it isn’t. Copper is at $3.95/Lb. or $0.25/ounce today, by the way. Well I am going back to my copper coin collecting and watch you all from the side lines.

    Thanks Dave for a great publication keep up the good work!

    All the best,
    Jay Elder
    Washougal, WA

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