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 Bilbo's Random Thought Collection
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 Tuesday, April 08, 2008
Lush Gold Supply From IMF Sell-Off
Posted by tom

TM-NEWS.gif IMF Sell-Off Spurs Morning Consolidation

Spot gold prices are down this morning in the wake of the International Monetary Funds announcement that it will sell approximately 14.2 million ounces of gold to settle its books and add stability to its long term financial picture. If this sale does happen, that's a big influx to the gold supply, so traders are exercising caution in consolidating their holdings and taking some profits.

The markets recent volatility has some fund operators hesitating also. The general rush to establish funds based on commodities has cooled as metals and other commonly traded commodities have run into this spotty patch.

In the case of the IMF gold sale however, remember that this is only the agencies proposal. Any such sale would have to be approved by member nations of which their are 185, so this gold sell-off has some hurdles to jump before realization.


News You Can Use
4/8/2008 9:36:52 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [1]
 Monday, April 07, 2008
The Grid Trumps the Internet
Posted by tom

TM-NEWS.gifThe Grid Beats the Internet

TMfamilywork.gifThe folks who brought us the Internet have been hard at work designing, constructing and linking together a new data transmital and processing network they have aptly named The Grid.

The Grid will be faster, more powerful and operate on dedicated modern hardware. But it was built for a scientific purpose, not for our amusement. So even though it could load a feature film down to your desktop in a matter of seconds, in the beginging the Grid will be busy contemplating the origins of the Universe.

A few simple parallels jump to mind. My first thought is that it sounds like The Matrix, of film fame, or the Skynet system from Terminator 2. Friend and fellow blogger Dave Kranz mentioned that he read that there were concerns that the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), the partical accelerator which will be generating the data that may reveal to us the origins of our Universe, may also create a black hole into which we will all disappear.

But I try not to be so afraid of gaining knowledge. Look how well we've down with fire and the wheel.

Anyway, the parallel which seems most frightening to me rests more in a comparison to our families purchases of desktop computers over the years. Each time we buy a new computer, we add on more and more memory and hard drive capacity. We do this, thinking that it will speed up processing, but then we discover that the newest software is five times larger and so, within a year our new computer runs just as slow as the old one.

So I'm wondering...once the superfast Grid lights up, will the heavy processing, massive data generating LHC slow it right back down to the same old Internet speed we all love to hate?

We'll find out this summer on "red button" day when both the Grid and the LHC are juiced into action.


News You Can Use | Tom's Inescapable Truths
4/7/2008 11:05:29 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [0]
 Friday, April 04, 2008
Efter brylluppet or After the Wedding
Posted by tom

TMfilm.gif

Tom's Recommended Film of the Week

Efter brylluppet or After the Wedding

Beginning and ending in India, with most of the stories time spent in Denmark, After the Wedding, offers a touch of mystery to a tale of love, commitment, manipulation and deceit. This is one of those seldom seen cases in film, where all elements come together to create good entertainment based in thought provoking human dilemmas.

Susanne Bier is one of the most well known film directors in Denmark, and next to Lars Von Trier, one of the most successful Dogme directors. She works with interesting stories and gets solid performances from the primarily Danish actors she casts. For After the Wedding she made some great choices that paid off good dividends. This is a drama that calls for some bold performances and Mads Mikkelsen, Sidse Babett Knudsen, Rolf Lassgard and Stine Fischer Christensen all deliver.


Tom's Recommended Film of the Week
4/4/2008 11:37:28 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [0]
Friday Fix
Posted by tom

TMgraph.gif Friday Fix

London pm fixes for 4-04-08

Gold $905.50

Silver $17.45

Platinum $1989.00

Palladium $438.00


Friday Fix
4/4/2008 10:18:34 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [1]
 Thursday, April 03, 2008
Tennessee Rolling Works Vignette in Smythe Sale
Posted by tom

TMLYL1.gif

D. Hillman & Sons an Iron Clad Mystery

The next lot to catch my eye in the upcoming Smythe Schingoethe sale is lot 1901. This Obsolete note is denominated at 5 cents, printed in blue ink and hosts an oustanding vignette of the Tennessee Rolling Works. This is a large mill scene which streches over most of this unissued remaider note, making it most attractive to anyone interested in building vignettes. Also of interest to collectors of Iron Works items and ofcourse, a nice item for any Obsolete or Scrip collector. There is a lot of cross appeal working for this numismatic item.

tenn rolling.jpg

In addition there is a good deal of mystery to solve. Under the main title, a note reads D. Hillman & Sons, who were the original owners of the mill, which later seems to have passed to Ewald Iron Company. The Internet offered a few references to a D. Hillman & Sons located in Trigg county Kentucky running a mill under the name Empire Iron Works, but I'm not sure when, or if, this changed to Tennessee Rolling Works, or if this is even the right D. Hillman & Sons. A quick check of the History of Trigg County revealed quite a bit of background on Daniel Hillman, with ties to Cumberland Furnace, Trigg County and Lyon County. Daniel established a company which eventuall became known as D. Hillman & Bros., so it's a short, but logical guess that it may have evolved over time into D. Hillman & Sons, the issuers of this note.

Ewald Iron Company ran at least two mills, one in St. Louis and one in Louisville. The St. Louis mill was called Tennessee Rolling Works and was established in 1846. According to the 1881 buisness directory of St. Louis, the Tennessee Rolling Works was located at 519 North Main Street near Washington Avenue, though I also found an address of 801 North Second Street. These may be the offices of the company, as I noticed a works location in Lyons county. The Louisville location was built later in 1869 and originally opened under the name Kentucky Rolling Mill, later changed to Tennessee Rolling Mills. A third mill mentioned in one source ran under the name of Tennessee Iron House. Maybe this one was on the Cumberland?

As you can see, there's plenty of mystery to go around on this note. But I'll leave further research for the new owner to enjoy after the auction closes on April 9th


Lots You'll Like
4/3/2008 1:47:48 PM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [0]
eBay a Good Buy?
Posted by tom

TM-NEWS.gifBuy eBay? Hmmm....

I read this morning that Merrill Lynch has changed their stock buying recommendation for eBay. Recently M-L had eBay listed as a neutral, but today they are recommending it as a good buy opportunity based on three factors.

The M-L cited factor which caught my attention involved eBay's new management and change in mentality. Hmmm. As a longtime eBay participent both in buying and selling, I have to say that the new management and the changes they have instituted have not been well received by or truely beneficial to the eBay community as a whole. Most seem dramatically slanted towards protecting innocent buyers from evil sellers, an attitude that has come on board with the advent of the new management.

In the past, eBay was always run as a community. Certainly they profited, but so did sellers and buyers enjoyed the benefit of a wide selection of goods and collectibles at reasonable prices. We all enjoyed a level playground and were treated equally. Sometimes a buyer didn't pay, sometimes a seller didn't describe an item fully. eBay did a reasonable job of mediation when it was needed and for smaller incidents users absorbed the losses and moved on.

Recently however, I get the feeling that the new eBay management thinks that dishonesty only originates from the pool of sellers, while all buyers are true-blue. This is not always the case. As I mentioned earlier, some buyers never send payment. Worse still, recently I have been hearing from some sellers that buyers are sometimes claiming they did not receive the item and getting a forced PayPal refund. In one specific instance this happened only three days after the close of the sale and payment was complete. For normal service, the USPS just does not work that fast. In the last year, I know of at least one seller who has lost hundreds of dollars to buyer fraud of this type. So I guess my point is, dishonesty on eBay is a two way street and sellers deserve as much protection as buyers.

For my part however, I would prefer it to be as it was in the beginning. A friendly community exchanging stuff. It was more fun in those days, before it became big business.

Which brings us back around to the Merrill Lynch buy recommendation. They are basing this on a percieved atmosphere of change at eBay. Well, there is no question about change in the air at eBay, buy I'm not likely to be buying, as I don't anticipate that these changes will build a better community or a stronger business in the long run.


News You Can Use
4/3/2008 10:41:18 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [0]
 Wednesday, April 02, 2008
Pike's Opera House Obsolete at Smythe Sale
Posted by tom

TMgavel.gif

Pike's Opera House a Cincinnati Landmark of Olde

More selections from the vast Obsolete Currency collection of Herb & Martha Schingoethe will cross the auction block next week on April 9th through the auspices of Smythe. In looking over the auction catalog I noticed a few items that especially piqued my curiosity and which I will post about over the next week or so, up until the sale date.

The vignette on lot number 1556 features a large and elegant building under the banner of Pike's Opera House. This note is from Cincinnati, Ohio, dated January 1, 1863 with a value of 25 cents. The note is an unissued remainder, which means that this particular example was never used in commerce.

newpike.jpgI like coins, medals, tokens and notes which sport designs of buildings. I guess it's the historian in me, but they always interest me and I like to track down as much information as I can on the building or business. In this case the note itself provides us with much information, including the business name and location. A quick Internet search filled out a great deal more of the interesting history of Pike's Opera House.

Samuel Pike made his money in liquor sales, but he certainly must have admired cultured entertainment. He opened the Opera House on March 15, 1859 and kept it as Cincinnati's sophisticated home of classical drama and music for over 40 years and through two major fires.

The New York Times reported on March 24, 1866 that Pike's Opera House in Cincinnati, Ohio burned down so completely that one of it's walls collapsed into the facing street. In addition several other businesses sustained serious fire damage and loss. Pike estimated the loss at nearly $1,000,000, while the business only had insurance for about $38,000. Initial reports had estimated the damage to Pike's at about $500,000, but that was on March 23rd while the fire was still not under control.

Considering it's nearly total loss, I figured that this would be the end of Pike's, but further searching proved me wrong. By 1867 the Opera House had been rebuilt, like a Phoenix from the ashes. Renowned pianist Anton Rubinstein played at Pike's Opera House several times during the winter of 1872 to 1873. In 1895, the Cincinnati Symphony Orchestra played at Pike's Opera House while awaiting the completion of the Cincinnati Music Hall. Though Pike did rebuild somehow, troubles for Pike's were not at an end. A second fire struck at the new Pike's Opera House on March 30th, 1902. This fire began during the day, while matinee performances were under way forcing 2,000 people to make their escape from the blaze. The 1902 fire caused only about $10,000 in damage to the building, with addition property damage to various businesses totaling neat $50,000. Though the initial damage report was lower, the second fire at Pike's must have put an end to the business, as I could find no more information about Pike's Opera House after 1903.

The note in the Schingoethe's collection is a great representation of a grand early Cincinnati landmark, with an exciting history. For those interested in Cincinnati it would make a nice addition to a banknote or ephemera collection.


Auction Lot of the Week
4/2/2008 5:55:57 PM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [0]
 Tuesday, April 01, 2008
Commodities Correct - Bullish Gold Stumbles
Posted by tom

TM-NEWS.gif Bull Market for Commodities Slackens

The long bull run for precious metals has hit a weak point. Sell-offs are on the rise and interest in commodities in general has dried up with renued strength for the U.S. dollar. All this in two days.

Gold this morning has dropped below the $900 mark and is fast headed towards the first benchmark of $885 noted in a posting last week. Soon we may be seeing if it can hold at that level.

Silver has fallen below $17 and platinum rests at about $1910, with future contracts slipping on signs demand will be dropping off, as investors loose interest. Platinums pal, palladium is down around $425.


News You Can Use
4/1/2008 9:31:47 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [1]
 Sunday, March 30, 2008
No Country For Old Men
Posted by tom

TMfilm.gif Tom's Recommended Film of the Week

No Country For Old Men

Right from the start, I'd like to caution that No Country For Old Men is a violent film. No doubt about that, so if you are bothered by violence in film, better pass on this one. The whole premise of No Country For Old Men centers in on the violence that permeates the edges of our lives in the form of criminals and law enforcement. It questions what might push one of these elements past the thin line that divides them, or what might draw others towards either of these lifestyles. This story compels the viewer to think about their own personal values and how fully we might cling to them in the face of temptation, adversity and hopelessness. Consider it an exploration of the human element within the businesses of drugs, money and public service.

In No Country For Old Men, we see intelligence, power, audacity, greed and stupidity each surfacing to cause incidents, which lead to unavoidable outcomes. While one character in the film purports that chance is an ever-present element, the story line begs to differ. Once the first decision is made, by the first character most viewers will identify with, a course is set which seems inevitable and once the viewer realizes this, the questions begin to crop up.

An outstanding novel by Cormac McCarthy, excellent direction and production by Joel and Ethan Coen and underplayed yet powerful acting from Tommy Lee Jones, Javier Bardem, Josh Brolin, Kelly Macdonald, Woody Harrelson, Gene Jones and Barry Corbin combine to show us the incredible possibilities of a world with character, but no courtesy. Listen closely to Ed Tom Bell, he is the voice of the novel and of the film, and provides the perspective that grounds the story.

My favorite films are always the ones that catch you off guard and make you think. No Country For Old Men does both and keeps you thinking for a long time after the film has ended.


Tom's Recommended Film of the Week
3/30/2008 12:08:23 PM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [0]
 Friday, March 28, 2008
Friday Fix
Posted by tom

TMgraph.gif Friday Fix

London pm fixes for 3-28-08

Gold $934.25

Silver $18.36

Platinum $1990.00

Palladium $444.00


Friday Fix
3/28/2008 11:56:39 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [1]
 Monday, March 24, 2008
Precious Metals Analysis - Gold Bench Marks
Posted by tom

TM-NEWS.gifInteresting Analysis of Gold and Silver Trends

Here's a quick recommendation. Check out Merv Burak's article from March 23rd on The Market Oracle website. Burak wisely has taken some time during this precious metals consolidation period to examine the upward climb with an eye towards benchmarks and pivotal points. In particular, he points to $885 and $840 as primary up-trend spots in Golds ascent since about the middle of last year.

I recall that Gold was just under $800 for a period last November and sits just above $900 today, representing a $100 rise in about five months. With the last few weeks consolidation trimming off roughly $90 after Gold's peak of about $1030, it is definitely a good time to reflect and consider options and possibilites.

As always, I suggest that you read as much as you can and consider carefully before investing your hard fought earnings. This is as true for investment as it is for numismatic collecting.


News You Can Use
3/24/2008 6:31:48 PM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [1]
 Saturday, March 22, 2008
eBay Gets Flakier Every Day!
Posted by tom

TM-NEWS.gifFlake Sells on eBay for $1350

This week the online auction site, eBay, had an auction closing for a corn flake shaped like the great State of Illinois. The McIntire sisters out in Virginia found this flake and decided to share it with the world, but when it was first listed eBay pulled it for being in violation of their food sales policy. The McIntires were guilty of attempting to auction unpackaged food products.

The sisters put their heads together and built an eBay work-around by offering a coupon good for their flake, which passed eBay rule scrutiny and sold on Friday night for $1350. The fellow who bought the corn flake owns a trivia website and a traveling pop culture trivia museum, so the Illinois flake will someday hit the road for all to see.

Even more interesting is the little cottage industry that sprung up around the Illionois flake. You can get t-shirts and several different buttons, or maybe you would like to bid on a corn flake shaped like your own home state. A quick search on eBay turned up an Ohio flake , a Michigan flake and a Virginia flake amongst many others.

Isn't life in the USA fascinating?


News You Can Use
3/22/2008 3:02:13 PM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [1]