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Will you win the Mint lottery?

Though specific release date and price are not yet known, the pending sale of the Lincoln Coin and Chronicles set in the middle of October looks like a certain sellout.

The set is limited to just 50,000 because that is the number of proof Lincoln
commemorative silver dollars that were set aside for inclusion. The commemorative dollar sold out rapidly early this year.

A proof set comprised of just the four Lincoln cents sold more than 66,000 in the first five days of sales. That seems to indicate a huge and ready reservoir of collector demand for the Lincoln Coin and Chronicles proof set.

The key difference will be price.

The four-cent proof set is just $7.95. The set with the silver commemorative will be priced somewhere in the neighborhood of $50.

Will the much higher price deter many buyers?

Ordinarily it might, but offsetting that is the likelihood that many buyers will view the set as a sure winner on the secondary market. The proof dollar is currently trading on the secondary wholesale market over $50.

Of course, the Mint could slow things down a bit by putting a shockingly high price on the set. I would expect this not to be the case, though.

A sellout will bring excitement to the hobby. It will also bring complaints. Some collectors, even those who know the situation ahead of time, will gripe about not being able to buy a set if there is a crush of demand that outnumbers the 50,000 maximum sales number.

It makes me wonder why there aren’t more complaints from the public every time someone buys a lottery ticket that fails to win.

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