Have you heard the criticism of someone else who supposedly doesn’t have the brains to come in out of the rain?
Well, today, that would be me.
A strong storm passed through Iola as I was attempting to go to work.
Instead of waiting it out, I headed out the door and promptly stepped in a deep pool of water on the sidewalk that I didn’t even realize was there.
That got my shoes and socks wet. Naturally, when you step in something, you pause for a moment to assess it, and in that second or two my pants got so wet that I knew I would have to change them as well.
The water-proof parka I was wearing was a good idea, but it protected only my upper body.
So I changed.
I even decided to put some boots on because the water running in the streets was so deep. I carried my dry shoes to work.
My second attempt at getting to work in reasonably dry shape succeeded.
They were caught in the financial storm that blew through the markets yesterday.
If they are not speculating with money they need for something else and if they are not leveraged, they can calmly take stock of where they are and what their goals are in owning bullion.
I promised yesterday to take a look at the daily price fluctuations from 1980 to see if we could extend the period I have covering after I noticed the uncanny similarities between this market since the mid-April plunge and the market following the 1980 peak.
If the parallel continues, the price of gold will not now close lower than yesterday’s price and 50 trading days out it will be significantly higher.
If I have counted the trading days right, that would put this new higher price on the day after Labor Day, Sept. 3.
The one clear difference between the 1980 market and the present one is the order of magnitude.
The percentage plunge in 1980 was greater than it has been this year. Therefore, the percentage bounce should likely be less.
In 1980 it was a 44 percent plunge followed by a 35 percent rebound.
Since April it has been roughly an 18 percent dip. If the bounce is similar in relation to the decline as in 1980, the recovery will be 80 percent of the loss, putting gold bullion back at $1,465.
Of course, this is true only as long as the parallel holds. At any time the present market can chart a new course.
Buzz blogger Dave Harper is editor of the weekly newspaper “Numismatic News.”