If it’s Wednesday, I must be in Germany. It was touch and go yesterday as we awaited the arrival of a weather front that brought snow and very cold temperatures.

Would the plane take off from Appleton? Would the plane take off from Chicago? Would we miss the connection in Frankfurt for Berlin?

Winter travel is less about any discomfort in movement and simply mentally wondering if there would be any movement at all.

It seems I just went through this with the FUN show and merely suffered a three-hour delay on the return home. But the wondering affected both directions.

Staying awake is also an order of business today. There is a reception tonight at the Canadian Embassy. It would not due to succumb to jet lag and miss it. It is an honor to share the night with world mint directors and others actively involved in creating the world’s coinage.

My profound thanks go to the Royal Canadian Mint.

I have to catch a plane later this morning, so it is a short time in the office. I am going to Berlin, Germany, to attend the World Money Fair.

In addition to usual show duties, I will be there with three other Krause Publications staffers to give the 2008 Coin of the Year Award. Canada is the winner of the Coin of the Year Award, which will be given for the 25th time on Feb. 2.

The winning coin is actually a four-coin set of $50 palladium pieces dated 2006 that show the Big Bear and Little Bear constellations in the Canadian night sky at four seasonal points during the year, with a nice stream and pine trees on the ground to frame them.

The International panel of judges were impressed and made the set the Coin of the Year, after having first voted the set as Most Innovative.

To someone from Wisconsin, it looks like a scene from home, so I am pleased with the judging.

There is an innovation of our own this year. We have added a People’s Choice Coin of the Year Award and conducted the voting online through the NumisMaster Web site.

The result of this first effort was the victory of a 50-forint coin from Hungary that marked the 50th anniversary of the 1956 uprising against the Soviets. That heroic and tragic resistance met with tanks and brutal suppression.

However, the Hungary of today can mark that dark chapter as a point on the road to the freedom the country now enjoys.

Congratulations to both nations.

With rapidly rising bullion prices, coin collectors have gotten used to the U.S. Mint taking gold and platinum coins off the market for a time, raising prices and then putting them back on the market.

Some collectors have groused whether the process works both ways. If bullion goes down, will the price the Mint charges for coins of precious metals go down also?

The answer is yes. In the most recent statement made by the Mint on Friday to announce that it was taking proof platinum Eagles off the market, the question was answered.

Platinum jumped $67.10 per ounce to $1,680.10 on Friday after production was shut down in South Africa’s major mines due to an electricity shortage in the country.

The Mint responded to the price rise. In the boilerplate announcement, the final bulleted item says, “Significant drops in the price of platinum will likewise result in a lowering of prices.”

I don’t know when that concept will be tested. The markets seem to be of a mind to keep going higher. However, some collectors who don’t like the idea of rising prices will have to figure out a new way to grouse about it.

It is still cold in Iola, but the advance signs are it will be a colder day on Wall Street. How volatile it will get is anybody’s guess. The prices of precious metals are swinging to and fro. I will be watching as will many other people around the world. It is an opportunity to contrast the short term and the long term in my thoughts.  I promised yesterday to provide the second part of my talk to the Sarasota Coin Club. It contains my forecasts for 2008. I guess now it will also serve as a long-term counterpoint to anything that might occur today.

One interesting thought popped into my head yesterday. It was the 28th anniversary of the last high point for gold prior to the recent record. Then it plunged. Is there something about January that incites wild swings in markets? That’s a topic worth pondering.

Part II

The Sarasota Coin Club is a great group. I had the honor of speaking to them Jan. 12 at the Florida United Numismatists convention.

I talked about my 10 forecasts for 2007 (see last week’s column) and offered 10 new forecasts. I had a great time at the meeting and sharing conversations with members before it began.

At the beginning of the talk I mentioned that I was right just six times out of 10 in 2007 and that if they simply flipped a coin, they could expect five correct answers. This was my way of confessing that even editors can’t see the future anymore clearly than anyone else.

At the risk of being wrong yet again, here are highlights of what I said:

1. My first forecast relates to the future holder of the executive director job of the American Numismatic Association. I said the ANA board would hire somebody with a numismatic hobby background. I pointed out that the prior hires of individuals who had no hobby background have not worked out, including one person who lasted all of six weeks. This time the board is going to lean in the other direction.

2. I wrote my talk before I arrived at the FUN show Wednesday. My second forecast was the ANA would be hit by more lawsuits. Even before I gave the talk, the ANA president was served on Thursday with a new suit filed by a number of grading services that have been affected by the new eBay policy about acceptable grading services. ANA was served, as were representatives of eBay and the Professional Numismatists Guild. I am right already, though it looks like hindsight now.

3. More coin shows will follow Baltimore’s lead in abolishing Sunday hours. Expenses of staging coin shows are rising and keeping up empty rooms is not cost effective.

4. Designs for the 2009 quarters for the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico and U.S. territories will be outstanding and help overcome some collector resistance to the new coins.

5. In 2007, the Mint was given additional authority in the consumer protection field to control use of its name and trademarks. I pointed out that most collectors think this is a good thing, but then I forecast that something would occur in 2008 that would look to collectors like the Mint was going a little too far.

6. The paper money hobby is hot. It has no formally adopted grading standard. Companies use one that is a hybrid of tradition and the coin hobby’s numerical grades. I forecast that the paper money field will make progress in trying to forge a formal set of grading standards.

7. After my 2007 forecast, are you ready for gold? I said some time in 2008 it will hit $1,000 a troy ounce.

8. Silver will hit $20. Again, from the time I wrote the speech until I delivered it, silver rose by 10 percent.

9. I will repeat from 2007 that the compositions of the cent and the nickel will change. Wrong once. Wrong twice?

10. My off-the-wall forecast for the year was the Mint was going to do something that takes it further down the road of privatization.

That’s the list. The clock is ticking.

Proof of how dependent we have all become on the Internet was given yesterday by the opening of the U.S. Mint’s Bald Eagle Commemorative Coin Program.

Because of the process of migration of the Web site from one server to another, online orders could not be taken when the program began at noon Eastern Time yesterday.

Hobbyists were referred to the Mint’s telephone ordering number, 1-800-USA-MINT. Enough collectors responded to jam the lines and the lines are currently still backed up as this is written. I received e-mails from readers yesterday afternoon asking what was going on and did I know that they were having difficulty getting through on the telephone.

My thanks go to all readers who provided me with the updates.

Because so many regular Internet buyers were being funneled through the telephones, it is probably a good idea that I point out that product order limits are in place and allowed quantities are high enough that collectors shouldn’t be too concerned about quick sellouts.

Last year, neither Mint commemorative program sold out its primary offerings and even the previously sure-fire Legacy Set did not reach its 50,000 maximum.

That, of course, doesn’t mean a sellout can’t happen. But let’s look at the numbers and see what you think.

Overall maximum mintages are 100,000 gold $5s, 500,000 silver dollars and 750,000 clad half dollars. These are pretty standard totals.

There are some special sets within these totals. A three-piece proof set will have a maximum of 25,000.

A Coin and Medal Set that features an uncirculated dollar and a bronze bald eagle medal from the National Wildlife Refuge System Centennial Medal Series has a maximum of 50,000.

A Bald Eagle Young Collector’s Set features an uncirculated bald eagle half dollar and its total production will be whatever is ordered Jan. 15-April 15.

Introductory prices end Feb. 14 at 5 p.m. Eastern Time. Prices below indicate the current price followed by the post-Feb. 14 price in parentheses.

Proof $5 $294.95 ($319.95)
Uncirculated $5, $284.95 ($309.95)
Proof dollar, $39.95 ($43.95)
Uncirculated dollar $35.95 ($37.95)
Proof half $9.95 ($10.95)
Uncirculated half $7.95 ($8.95)

There are no introductory prices for the set options. The three-coin proof set is $369.95, the Young Collector’s Set is $14.95 and the Coin and Medal Set is $44.95.

Order limits for 30 days are 100 coins per household for the individual coins, one three-coin proof set and five Coin and Medal Sets. Because there is no maximum, there is no order limit for the Young Collector’s Set.

Later this year a Legacy set with a proof dollar will be offered.

So if you have not yet gotten through to the Mint on the telephone, you now have the information you need to determine whether you want to wait until the online ordering mechanism is back up and running.

Sales of Bald Eagle commemorative coins began today at noon Eastern time, but to order you must use the telephone. The Mint is migrating to another Web server and that will keep the online service down for a day or two. Telephone 1-800-USA-MINT.

Fridays at the annual Florida United Numismatists conventions are always topped off for me by attendance at the National Silver Dollar Roundtable dinner.

It is a great time with good hobby friends at a Ruth’s Chris Steakhouse. I eat more red meat than is good for me, but how can I resist?

I burn a few calories off by taking photographs of the awards. I am looking forward to seeing who wins them tonight.

Randy Campbell always does an excellent job as emcee.

It is gratifying to see how hard work and reputation add up to recognition and heartfelt congratulations by hobby peers.

The years fly by and it is by these milestones that the participants remember their time in the hobby.

Give U.S. paper money a try in 2008. You might make history in future years by being the first to sell a $1 million small-size note. That day is still quite a ways into the future, but some collectors starting now will still be active when it happens.

It may be fun to chase the items made of gold, silver or platinum that are currently making headlines, but moving along quietly higher are bank notes that the paper money hobby calls small-size currency.

Small-size is basically the current size, which was introduced July 10, 1929, with the notes that went before them being larger. They, quite naturally enough, are called large-size currency. Hobbyists being hobbyists adopted terminology that made distinctions that highlighted the basic difference between the two.

From that point on for a couple of generations, the small-size notes were collected like coin collectors collect Jefferson nickels now. They were there, but compared to the colorful large-size predecessors, they weren’t where the action was.

That has been changing since the large-head currency was introduced in 1996 and the pace of change has accelerated since the widespread adoption of third-party grading by paper money collectors.

Newcomers, who come mostly from the coin field, gravitate to what they know. They know a coin grading system that is numbered 1-70, so paper money collectors informally began using numbers. They know third-party coin grading firms, so it is not a leap of faith when the same firm offers third-party paper money grading.

Finally, collectors usually begin in a new field with the most familiar items, and that would be small-size notes. Few people alive today remember using large-size notes.

Besides, large-size notes have gotten expensive. There are still reasonable prices in the small-size field.

If you are looking to collect something for the next 25 or 30 years, that would seem to me to point to something that still has a lot of upside potential left.

These notes will seldom be in the  headlines as long as precious metals are making new highs, but someday they will be. Collectors today have the opportunity of getting in, not on the ground floor, but you would need to be around 90 years old for that to truly be the case.

Someday a small-size note will bring $1 million, which means the current rarities will have to rise in price by 25 or 30 times. Which note it will be is now up to you to find. Go for it.

Platinum was the market champion of the three precious metals that most collectors watch. In 2007, its price rose by 33.89 percent from the final close in 2006.

Gold was no slouch. It came in close behind by registering a 31.44 percent gain.

Silver was the laggard, but few are unhappy with the result. It was still up 15.44 percent for the year, far more than the rise that could be obtained in the Dow Jones Industrial Average of 6.4 percent, or in the average price of a house, which declined by a similar figure.

Holders of the metals are feeling mighty good.

I took a look at the performance of the three metals since the close of the year 2000. These numbers then reverse themselves. Silver is the champion with a gain of 223 percent followed by gold at 207 percent and platinum at 150 percent. These numbers also aren’t shabby. Anyone who owned platinum probably isn’t complaining that silver should have been the investment choice.

Interestingly, gold is the most stable in its path. It went up all seven years, with gains of 2.46 percent in 2001, 24.72 percent in 2002, 19.59 percent in 2003, 5.24 percent in 2004, 18.29 percent in 2005, 22.84 percent in 2006 and 31.44 percent in 2007.

Silver and platinum seem a bit more bound to the business cycle. Both of these actually declined in 2001, which was a weak economic year. Silver was barely lower with a figure of negative 0.13 percent, while platinum was down 19.05 percent. Then both perked up and never looked back.

Silver’s pattern was up 4.85 percent in 2002, 24.00 percent in 2003, 14.35 percent in 2004, 29.57 percent in 2005, 45.33 percent in 2006 and 15.44 percent in 2007.

Platinum registered increases of 22.60 percent in 2002, 34.23 percent in 2003, 6.46 percent in 2004, 12.65 percent in 2005, 17.09 percent in 2006 and 33.89 percent in 2007.

Where will they go from here? Well, for today, look at the pattern and consider what you think will happen in 2008.

If you want to share, post it below or e-mail me at david.harper@fwpubs.com.