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 Tuesday, May 06, 2008
All operators are busy now
Posted by Dave
I had a phone call yesterday afternoon from someone who was definitely not a happy camper. I receive calls and e-mails of this kind from time to time. It is part of the job. We are not perfect here in Iola. We try our best, but we do make mistakes. Sometimes things we do aren’t mistakes, but some people simply don’t like it. I hear it all. That’s life. That’s fair. That’s part of what I am here for. Yesterday’s call was a little different from the usual because the individual talked and talked and I finally had to ask him why he was calling me because he never got to what I could perceive as the reason for the call. This didn’t make him happier at all. I could hear it in his voice. I apologized for what he experienced even though precisely what he had experienced I was not sure of. What was clear was he had said he had talked or contacted in some fashion a number of people but could not identify them, at least until I pressed him and he mentioned Answerman Alan Herbert, who has been a well-known figure in Numismatic News for 40 years with Coin Clinic and Odd Corner. So I helpfully jumped in and said to him to give me a call directly next time and that might prevent future problems. “Who are you?” he asked. Ouch.
5/6/2008 8:53:43 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00) 
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Monday, May 05, 2008
What's right for you?
Posted by Dave
When precious metals come off highs as they have in recent days, the logical question in the minds of gold and silver owners is when is the right time to sell? Should I have sold gold when it hit $1,000? Should I have sold some silver when it passed $20? Every owner is probably asking himself or herself those very questions. I thought of this at lunch yesterday. I was transiting through the Miami airport. I met a couple from a small town outside of Tulsa, Okla. We were thrown together in a crowded restaurant. We got to talking. Neither was a collector, but they owned some coins that they had acquired or saved years ago. The husband said he had about 30 silver dollars. He wondered what the price was. I replied that they were currently probably worth about $15. Then he told me a story about 1980. He had had them then. When the local coin dealer was offering $30 apiece, he decided he would sell them when they reached $35. He said he checked every day. They inched a bit higher, but never made $35. Then the plunge started and no sale occurred at all. Here we are 28 years later. Bullion is making headlines but silver dollars are still not as high as 1980. He can always keep them, but the one thing that has changed is that he has worked for 40 years and is nearing retirement. He is older. Does he have the time to wait? That is the question. Gold may be eternal, but its owners are not. The time to sell is dictated as much by personal circumstance as it is by the long-term outlook. It pays not to forget that.
5/5/2008 8:58:09 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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Friday, May 02, 2008
What are you looking for?
Posted by dave
I began my blog more than a year ago. It is amazing how much it becomes a part of my life and how quickly, too. Five days a week, holidays excepted, I have something posted. The topics are varied. There never seems to be a shortage of subjects. That is all to the good. However, from time to time it is a good thing to ask the opinions of readers. I do this fairly frequently, but one thing occurs to me. It comes not in relationship to frequency, but I do not recall that I have ever asked a completely open ended, “What topic would you like to see covered in my blog?” My memory is not perfect, but it is good enough to give me a high enough level of confidence that I am writing this entry and asking this question now. Here we are on the verge of a springtime weekend. My thoughts are turning toward the outdoors and to activities that have absolutely nothing to do with my desk, chair and computer in the Numismatic News office. You can be sure when I return to the office on Monday morning that I will be all ready to go once again. But what should I be all ready to go with? Let me know your suggestions. I will see what I can do from that point. Am I just filling space today? You can bet on it. That doesn’t mean my request for suggestions is illegitimate. It simply means that I am already indulging in nonhobby thoughts. It is your job to get me refocused. Make a suggestion.
5/2/2008 9:01:39 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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Thursday, May 01, 2008
Got the radio habit yet?
Posted by dave
Have you gotten into the habit of listening to Coin Chat Radio online at www.coinchatradio.com? I hope so. The next new program is 11 a.m. this morning. Don’t worry if you think you’ve missed it. It repeats at the top of every hour. The programs from prior weeks are archived so that you can hear what occurred in the past since we began in March. As you might guess, there are interviews that I am particularly proud of and would point out to you given the opportunity and there are others that are of a more routine nature or that lapse into the past so quickly that it is no longer relevant to bring them up again. But that is the fun of this online radio. We get living, breathing collectors and dealers and we let them have their say in their own words. You can catch the tone of voice. You can hear the turn of phrase. You can tell if it is spontaneous. I like spontaneous best. I enjoy walking around the bourse floor and talking to people. It is fun. It is interesting. And, yes, I know, I use and say the word “interesting” a lot. But if it were not interesting, why would I be doing it? Remember Coin Chat Radio.
5/1/2008 9:03:43 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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Wednesday, April 30, 2008
One more thing with the cent
Posted by dave
If you will permit me to mention the cent twice in one week, I have another observation to make about it. I get mail and e-mails that repeatedly stress the point that if the cent is abolished and rounding is instituted, the rounding will always work against the consumer. Some statistical types have written in to say not so and then tried to prove the point, but most writers still feel in their gut that they are at a disadvantage without the cent. How does experience enter into the question? Well, I know that merchants want to make as much money as possible, but does that mean rounding would always go against the consumer? Look at the “Take-A-Penny” dishes. They are common around here. I assume they are common in other parts of the country. Merchants are using them in my experience to add the last penny or two to round off my purchase price. I assume it is the merchants themselves who are doing the stocking of these dishes. I base that assumption on the fact of the surprised looks clerks give me when I from time to time throw a cent or two into the dish instead of putting it into my pocket. For you see, if I am owed a penny, the merchant pays it to me. If I owe the penny, it comes out of the dish. It is always in my favor. Would merchants behave so differently with rounding? They certainly want to make people feel good about buying things from them. Leaving customers muttering under their breath about unfair rounding would not contribute to that positive shopping experience. There. I have had my say. What do you think?
4/30/2008 8:51:58 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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Tuesday, April 29, 2008
What a popular topic
Posted by dave
Any time I write about cents, the level of interest seems to rise. I don’t believe I am particularly clever, but it is a topic that resonates in America at the moment. I asked last week if the American people were quietly abolishing the cent by not using it and pointed to plunging mintage figures to illustrate the point. Comments were posted. I appreciate comments. This time it truly is different for the cent. In the past, the mintage totals would rise to peaks the coincided with economic high points and then fall. What makes this cycle different is that in prior cycles each high point was basically higher than the prior one. This time the high point was hardly more than half the prior one. Something is going on. It is worth paying attention to. Sometimes people really do change their habits. It happened before with the half dollar. The half dollar turned from a useful everyday coin into a commemorative to be saved and reverenced in 1964 when the Kennedy half was introduced. Rising silver prices and changing alloys did not help, but Americans got out of the habit of using the coin. Now it languishes almost in the same land of the undead as the Sacagawea dollar that I wrote about yesterday. Are Americans changing their coin using habits again to the exclusion of the cent? Could be. As one person e-mailed me, all denominations below the quarter should be abolished and even the Internal Revenue Service rounds everything to the nearest dollar.
4/29/2008 9:04:18 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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Monday, April 28, 2008
Zombies walk the earth
Posted by dave
When I was a kid I loved the old horror movies. Frankenstein, Dracula, the wolfman and other ghouls were great fun. One type of monster was the zombie. The zombie is a person neither alive nor dead but undead and still walking the earth, much to the concern of the local population of fearful villagers. We have zombie coins. Coins that are not either alive and useful in commerce or dead like the half-cent, two-cent and three-cent coins. They are animated for the express purpose of being sold to collectors. They once had real life, but now do not. Today the Zombie 2008 Sacagawea dollar walks the earth. She won’t terrify the villagers, but coin collectors are being asked by the U.S. Mint to buy bag and roll quantities of them and to buy proof sets and mint sets in which she is included. She was last a living denomination in 2000 and 2001, but then became a zombie. The dollar coin is problematic, anyway, but the dollar coin that is supposed to be issued for circulation is the Presidential dollar. It is the series that the Mint currently invests its attention on with debut ceremonies and promotional commentary. Do we need two different series of dollar coins? If so, why not make it three or four? Continue striking the Anthony dollar and sell it to collectors. Why not give life to Frank Gasparro’s Liberty design that was suggested for the dollar coin before Susan B. Anthony supporters hijacked the denomination? When is enough enough? As long as we cannot answer that question, zombie coins will walk in the land of collectors.
4/28/2008 9:03:48 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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Friday, April 25, 2008
What does bad news really mean?
Posted by Dave
Food riots in poor countries around the world and de facto rice rationing in California by national retail chains have had a peculiar effect on me. They make me worry about gold. The human tragedy and human propensity to hoard are worthy topics in their own right, but for myself, the relationship to things numismatic is the important point. Events like this happened in the 1970s. They happened closer to gold tops than to good buying opportunities for the precious metals. The smart time to buy is when everything is quiet and nobody sees any reason to get into precious metals. The smart time to sell is when everybody is predicting that gold will reach the moon. Is that why gold closed below $900 a troy ounce yesterday at $886.80? It is never too late to make an investment. As long as there are people, gold will be bought and sold as a hedge against inflation. But that doesn’t mean markets go straight up forever. In fact, they can take a very long time to reach new highs as gold buyers in early 1980 found out. Gold can correct and it can correct severely. Have we reached a point of such speculative excess that gold will stage a significant retreat? Even gold bulls seem to be predicing a routine correction, but could it be more severe than that? When I talked to Leon Hendrickson of SilverTowne on Saturday he said his smelting and refining operation was buying $3 million in gold a week. Now large numbers by themselves don’t mean anything, but how much of this metal is being sold by people’s whose household budgets have been stretched to the breaking point by high mortgage payments, high gasoline and high food prices? We had lines in 1980 to indicate everybody and his brother were selling. Many pundits paid no attention, but the physical selling helped swamp the markets with supply. This time perhaps technology makes this warning more subtle. I asked Leon where the coin counters were like in 1980 and he said electronic scales are so much better and faster. They are also much quieter. We don’t hear the clinking and clanking on the floor anymore, but that doesn’t mean significant public selling is not occurring.
4/25/2008 9:08:08 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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Thursday, April 24, 2008
Giving up the cent
Posted by Dave
The cent has been a hot topic of discussion by collectors and the subject of the "Numismatic News" online poll. Both sides of the abolition question weigh in, with the majority still leaning to retention of the historic denomination. However, opinions aside, are the American people through their use patterns giving the coin up? I ask the question because I took a look at the total cent production in the first quarter of 2008. It stands at 1,053,600,000. That’s a large number until you start making some comparisons. If that is the quarterly production figure, it is fair to project that production for the year will be four times that amount, or 4,214,400,000 coins. That figure is down from the total in 2007, which was 7,401,200,000. The 2006 total was 8,234,000,000. See the pattern? It seems dramatic, but if you go back to the peak of the last boom times, the year 2000 production totals, what do you think the number is? 14,277,420,000 Wow. Ten billion fewer cents will be produced this year than in 2000. That’s billion with a “b.” That’s a significant decline no matter how you slice it. I am sure you have heard it pointed out that Coinstar, which puts counting machines in supermarkets, recirculates more cents than was the case in the past. It is true, but is this factor sufficient to explain the huge mintage drop or is there something else at work? More credit transactions perhaps? Spontaneous rounding or use of the now common “take a penny” dish at many shops? World coin collectors are used to seeing inflation in other countries push coins out of use. Is it happening here?
4/24/2008 8:58:45 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Always look for the next one
Posted by Dave
Last week while I was attending the Central States Numismatic Society convention I passed a milestone. It was my 30th anniversary of employment here at Krause Publications. Time flies when you do what you love. I was able to be working on the occasion, attending the sale of the David Queller Family Collection and watching how someone who clearly loves the hobby and his coins lets them go to others. David Queller offered his blessings to all of the buyers of his coins. What a noble gesture. It is an example that I have seen in numismatics often enough over three decades to know that we are a hobby populated by gracious individuals, who while deeply attached to coins themselves, also see the many other collectors out there who are as attached to their coins as they are and know in their bones the sense of achievement that being able to own significant rarities offers. No sooner had the last lot sold and the excitement of the moment died away than David Queller was looking forward to working on other coin collections. That’s a real collector. It is also every collector. In my time here, I have learned that you don’t have to buy an 1804 dollar to achieve that deep sense of satisfaction. It comes to us all as we acquire a 1909-S VDB cent to finish a Lincoln cent set or a 1913-S quarter to finish a Barber set. Meaning comes from striving toward the collecting goal, no matter how we choose to define it, and taking satisfaction in acquiring the pieces that this goal entails. Then there is that element of always looking forward to the next purchase and the next set. We are never satisfied, but in this condition we all take great satisfaction. Too philosophical? Well, on an anniversary such as this, I hope you will allow it. I am still out here as we all move forward together.
4/23/2008 9:05:31 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Push forward or pause?
Posted by Dave
It is primary election day in Pennsylvania. This is a good time to bring up an election-related numismatic topic that was brought to my attention by David Sundman, president of Littleton, in a conversation we had at the Central States Numismatic Society convention this past week. His firm is a direct marketing machine. It does what works and stops doing what doesn’t. Sundman made the observation that it is harder to sell coins to people during a presidential election year. Do his potential buyers become more skeptical? Are they more conservative with their money? Are they simply hanging back to see which way the political winds blow and evaluating how a change in direction might affect their personal budgets? Any and all of these are plausible reasons to be a harder sell. This year we might add that a threatening recession might have something to do with it. But on the other hand, the very factors that seem to make Sundman’s collector clients less receptive to buying coins are also prompting other buyers to step forward to buy up 2008 American Eagle silver bullion coins and cause them to be in such short supply that the Mint is rationing them. It is also causing other buyers to look at the great rarities as assets that will stand the test of time, weather the current bout of inflation and reward the owner with not only the satisfaction of possessing something few can ever own but also with a favorable return on investment. So how is your mood? Are you buying coins in your usual fashion? Are you holding back? Are you aggressive and energized, or are you idling in neutral?
4/22/2008 8:54:04 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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Monday, April 21, 2008
Paper money makes a move
Posted by Dave
I am just back from the Central States Numismatic Society convention in the Chicago suburb of Rosemont. It was a good and enjoyable show. I am especially glad that I did not have to attend the Heritage paper money auction to the end of each session. One session lasted until 3:15 a.m. The following one lasted until 5 a.m. I don’t know what kind of prices the lots that come up at 4:30 in the morning brought, but any bidder still in the room deserves the numismatic Iron Man Award. Prices overall were strong. I heard more than one observer call some of the prices “stupid money.” That is prices are so high there seems to be no restraint at all on the part of the bidder. Perhaps those bidders know something I do not, but another person said that if you brought some of those lots directly from the auction to the bourse floor they would not have brought one-sixth the price. Well, that situation will not last long as every dealer will be studying prices realized and repricing inventory accordingly. It would appear that CSNS has set the hobby up for another leg in the current up market. For paper money, I will look forward to the Memphis show at the end of June to take another on-the-spot reading.
4/21/2008 8:52:20 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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