It is still cold in Iola, but the advance signs are it will be a colder day on Wall Street. How volatile it will get is anybody’s guess. The prices of precious metals are swinging to and fro. I will be watching as will many other people around the world. It is an opportunity to contrast the short term and the long term in my thoughts.  I promised yesterday to provide the second part of my talk to the Sarasota Coin Club. It contains my forecasts for 2008. I guess now it will also serve as a long-term counterpoint to anything that might occur today.

One interesting thought popped into my head yesterday. It was the 28th anniversary of the last high point for gold prior to the recent record. Then it plunged. Is there something about January that incites wild swings in markets? That’s a topic worth pondering.

Part II

The Sarasota Coin Club is a great group. I had the honor of speaking to them Jan. 12 at the Florida United Numismatists convention.

I talked about my 10 forecasts for 2007 (see last week’s column) and offered 10 new forecasts. I had a great time at the meeting and sharing conversations with members before it began.

At the beginning of the talk I mentioned that I was right just six times out of 10 in 2007 and that if they simply flipped a coin, they could expect five correct answers. This was my way of confessing that even editors can’t see the future anymore clearly than anyone else.

At the risk of being wrong yet again, here are highlights of what I said:

1. My first forecast relates to the future holder of the executive director job of the American Numismatic Association. I said the ANA board would hire somebody with a numismatic hobby background. I pointed out that the prior hires of individuals who had no hobby background have not worked out, including one person who lasted all of six weeks. This time the board is going to lean in the other direction.

2. I wrote my talk before I arrived at the FUN show Wednesday. My second forecast was the ANA would be hit by more lawsuits. Even before I gave the talk, the ANA president was served on Thursday with a new suit filed by a number of grading services that have been affected by the new eBay policy about acceptable grading services. ANA was served, as were representatives of eBay and the Professional Numismatists Guild. I am right already, though it looks like hindsight now.

3. More coin shows will follow Baltimore’s lead in abolishing Sunday hours. Expenses of staging coin shows are rising and keeping up empty rooms is not cost effective.

4. Designs for the 2009 quarters for the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico and U.S. territories will be outstanding and help overcome some collector resistance to the new coins.

5. In 2007, the Mint was given additional authority in the consumer protection field to control use of its name and trademarks. I pointed out that most collectors think this is a good thing, but then I forecast that something would occur in 2008 that would look to collectors like the Mint was going a little too far.

6. The paper money hobby is hot. It has no formally adopted grading standard. Companies use one that is a hybrid of tradition and the coin hobby’s numerical grades. I forecast that the paper money field will make progress in trying to forge a formal set of grading standards.

7. After my 2007 forecast, are you ready for gold? I said some time in 2008 it will hit $1,000 a troy ounce.

8. Silver will hit $20. Again, from the time I wrote the speech until I delivered it, silver rose by 10 percent.

9. I will repeat from 2007 that the compositions of the cent and the nickel will change. Wrong once. Wrong twice?

10. My off-the-wall forecast for the year was the Mint was going to do something that takes it further down the road of privatization.

That’s the list. The clock is ticking.

Proof of how dependent we have all become on the Internet was given yesterday by the opening of the U.S. Mint’s Bald Eagle Commemorative Coin Program.

Because of the process of migration of the Web site from one server to another, online orders could not be taken when the program began at noon Eastern Time yesterday.

Hobbyists were referred to the Mint’s telephone ordering number, 1-800-USA-MINT. Enough collectors responded to jam the lines and the lines are currently still backed up as this is written. I received e-mails from readers yesterday afternoon asking what was going on and did I know that they were having difficulty getting through on the telephone.

My thanks go to all readers who provided me with the updates.

Because so many regular Internet buyers were being funneled through the telephones, it is probably a good idea that I point out that product order limits are in place and allowed quantities are high enough that collectors shouldn’t be too concerned about quick sellouts.

Last year, neither Mint commemorative program sold out its primary offerings and even the previously sure-fire Legacy Set did not reach its 50,000 maximum.

That, of course, doesn’t mean a sellout can’t happen. But let’s look at the numbers and see what you think.

Overall maximum mintages are 100,000 gold $5s, 500,000 silver dollars and 750,000 clad half dollars. These are pretty standard totals.

There are some special sets within these totals. A three-piece proof set will have a maximum of 25,000.

A Coin and Medal Set that features an uncirculated dollar and a bronze bald eagle medal from the National Wildlife Refuge System Centennial Medal Series has a maximum of 50,000.

A Bald Eagle Young Collector’s Set features an uncirculated bald eagle half dollar and its total production will be whatever is ordered Jan. 15-April 15.

Introductory prices end Feb. 14 at 5 p.m. Eastern Time. Prices below indicate the current price followed by the post-Feb. 14 price in parentheses.

Proof $5 $294.95 ($319.95)
Uncirculated $5, $284.95 ($309.95)
Proof dollar, $39.95 ($43.95)
Uncirculated dollar $35.95 ($37.95)
Proof half $9.95 ($10.95)
Uncirculated half $7.95 ($8.95)

There are no introductory prices for the set options. The three-coin proof set is $369.95, the Young Collector’s Set is $14.95 and the Coin and Medal Set is $44.95.

Order limits for 30 days are 100 coins per household for the individual coins, one three-coin proof set and five Coin and Medal Sets. Because there is no maximum, there is no order limit for the Young Collector’s Set.

Later this year a Legacy set with a proof dollar will be offered.

So if you have not yet gotten through to the Mint on the telephone, you now have the information you need to determine whether you want to wait until the online ordering mechanism is back up and running.

Sales of Bald Eagle commemorative coins began today at noon Eastern time, but to order you must use the telephone. The Mint is migrating to another Web server and that will keep the online service down for a day or two. Telephone 1-800-USA-MINT.

Fridays at the annual Florida United Numismatists conventions are always topped off for me by attendance at the National Silver Dollar Roundtable dinner.

It is a great time with good hobby friends at a Ruth’s Chris Steakhouse. I eat more red meat than is good for me, but how can I resist?

I burn a few calories off by taking photographs of the awards. I am looking forward to seeing who wins them tonight.

Randy Campbell always does an excellent job as emcee.

It is gratifying to see how hard work and reputation add up to recognition and heartfelt congratulations by hobby peers.

The years fly by and it is by these milestones that the participants remember their time in the hobby.