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 Wednesday, January 16, 2008
You might just want to wait
Posted by Dave
Proof of how dependent we have all become on the Internet was given yesterday by the opening of the U.S. Mint’s Bald Eagle Commemorative Coin Program. Because of the process of migration of the Web site from one server to another, online orders could not be taken when the program began at noon Eastern Time yesterday. Hobbyists were referred to the Mint’s telephone ordering number, 1-800-USA-MINT. Enough collectors responded to jam the lines and the lines are currently still backed up as this is written. I received e-mails from readers yesterday afternoon asking what was going on and did I know that they were having difficulty getting through on the telephone. My thanks go to all readers who provided me with the updates. Because so many regular Internet buyers were being funneled through the telephones, it is probably a good idea that I point out that product order limits are in place and allowed quantities are high enough that collectors shouldn’t be too concerned about quick sellouts. Last year, neither Mint commemorative program sold out its primary offerings and even the previously sure-fire Legacy Set did not reach its 50,000 maximum. That, of course, doesn’t mean a sellout can’t happen. But let’s look at the numbers and see what you think. Overall maximum mintages are 100,000 gold $5s, 500,000 silver dollars and 750,000 clad half dollars. These are pretty standard totals. There are some special sets within these totals. A three-piece proof set will have a maximum of 25,000. A Coin and Medal Set that features an uncirculated dollar and a bronze bald eagle medal from the National Wildlife Refuge System Centennial Medal Series has a maximum of 50,000. A Bald Eagle Young Collector’s Set features an uncirculated bald eagle half dollar and its total production will be whatever is ordered Jan. 15-April 15. Introductory prices end Feb. 14 at 5 p.m. Eastern Time. Prices below indicate the current price followed by the post-Feb. 14 price in parentheses. Proof $5 $294.95 ($319.95) Uncirculated $5, $284.95 ($309.95) Proof dollar, $39.95 ($43.95) Uncirculated dollar $35.95 ($37.95) Proof half $9.95 ($10.95) Uncirculated half $7.95 ($8.95) There are no introductory prices for the set options. The three-coin proof set is $369.95, the Young Collector’s Set is $14.95 and the Coin and Medal Set is $44.95. Order limits for 30 days are 100 coins per household for the individual coins, one three-coin proof set and five Coin and Medal Sets. Because there is no maximum, there is no order limit for the Young Collector’s Set. Later this year a Legacy set with a proof dollar will be offered. So if you have not yet gotten through to the Mint on the telephone, you now have the information you need to determine whether you want to wait until the online ordering mechanism is back up and running.
1/16/2008 9:06:59 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)
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 Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Use the phone
Posted by Dave
Sales of Bald Eagle commemorative coins began today at noon Eastern time, but to order you must use the telephone. The Mint is migrating to another Web server and that will keep the online service down for a day or two. Telephone 1-800-USA-MINT.
1/15/2008 12:39:20 PM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)
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Enjoy the trend, don't rely on it
Posted by Dave
Rugged individualism is an American trait. It is mostly a good thing, but it can be a bad thing when it turns into the “I don’t need no stinkin’ government” retirement planning. Gold is currently hot. Coins are having a good run. House prices generally are flat or declining depending on where you live. The stock market is in a slow-motion panic. Inflation is rising. And the usual punching bag, Social Security, continues to play its role. Rather than interpret current conditions as an indictment of all things that are not currently strong, prudent retirement planning needs to continue to focus on diversification. Owners of gold have done quite well since 2001. However, they waited more than 20 years for the present good times to get going. In 1980, if you had been ready to retire and had been convinced by the “I don’t need no stinkin’ government” advisors of the time, you would have had a large chunk in an asset that then proceeded to drop by more than two-thirds from its $850 peak. It would have been nice to have had some Morgan dollars during the 1980s bull market to buck that trend. It would have been nice to have some money in the stock market. It would have been nice to have a piece of real estate. It was nice to draw on inflation-indexed Social Security. It all adds up. Being dependent on any one thing can be a recipe for eating dog food at the end of the month. There are some gold buyers from 1980 who are only now cashing out, 28 years later and a whole lot grayer. The last seven years have been great, they recognize, but waiting 28 years to break even is strong evidence that diversification is important. It is too bad that their voices are not generally heard over the gold-advocacy din. I’m not knocking gold. It could go to $1,500 or $2,000 an ounce. Buy some. Enjoy some. Give your wife a nice gold coin necklace, but don’t put your whole future on the line with it. Coin collectors, of course, should keep doing what they are doing. The general give and take and active engagement in the market is not only fun, but it is good training in the art of diversification of assets. You don’t want to be all in BU 1950-D nickel rolls at $1,000 in 1964 or MS-65 1881-S silver dollars at the same price in the late 1980s. Being a collector forces diversification and we are all the wiser for it.
1/15/2008 9:09:13 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)
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 Monday, January 14, 2008
You could hear the floor action
Posted by Dave
It sure was nice to hear the buzz on the bourse floor of the Florida United Numismatists convention on the Thursday, Friday and Saturday of the show this past week. Not only were dealers there doing what they always do, the public showed up in significant numbers. Former American Numismatic Association President Bob Campbell said Saturday afternoon when I caught up with him on the bourse floor that the things that sold best were his “catchers,” or eye-catchers. These are the things that catch the eye of first-time buyers as they walk by his table. Catchers are things like gold nuggets, police badges and hobo nickels. He cited a few other things, too, but he was speaking so rapidly I wasn’t able to take the whole list down. This is interesting because gold was approaching $900 an ounce and silver was over $16. Not everybody is caught up in the bullion investment wave. Sunday morning at the annual meeting of the members of FUN, Donna Moon, who handled public registration, said attendance was 2,800 Thursday, 2,450 Friday and 3,250 Saturday. Those numbers didn’t include dealers with badges going in and out multiple times nor did it include members of the public who kept their identity stickers for the duration so they wouldn’t have to register a second time. I cite the numbers because they strike me as significant. It was a good show. It is good to be home, even if I did get into Iola around three hours late. We sat on the tarmac of the Orlando airport for about two and half hours yesterday afternoon waiting for a thunderstorm to pass. And here I was worrying about snow.
1/14/2008 9:01:29 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)
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 Friday, January 11, 2008
Old friends are good ones at NSDR
Posted by dave
Fridays at the annual Florida United Numismatists conventions are always topped off for me by attendance at the National Silver Dollar Roundtable dinner. It is a great time with good hobby friends at a Ruth’s Chris Steakhouse. I eat more red meat than is good for me, but how can I resist? I burn a few calories off by taking photographs of the awards. I am looking forward to seeing who wins them tonight. Randy Campbell always does an excellent job as emcee. It is gratifying to see how hard work and reputation add up to recognition and heartfelt congratulations by hobby peers. The years fly by and it is by these milestones that the participants remember their time in the hobby.
1/11/2008 9:01:35 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)
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 Thursday, January 10, 2008
Did I make it to FUN?
Posted by dave
I am here in Orlando, Fla. Four Numismatic News staffers set out for the Florida United Numismatists convention on three separate flights. Before we had even left the office Tuesday night, Sue Konkel was already trying to make alternative arrangements for a Wednesday flight that was cancelled many hours ahead of time. Travel in the winter from central Wisconsin through Chicago is always an adventure. My Dec. 1 transit was delayed to Dec. 2 by an early snow storm. Don’t get me wrong. I would rather be safe than sorry, but the best outcome is to get to FUN with minimal problems and delays. Well. I made it. Now I just have to worry about getting home on Sunday.
1/10/2008 9:04:26 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)
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 Wednesday, January 09, 2008
Gold making bold moves
Posted by dave
Gold just keeps on pouring it on. It jumped $18.40 yesterday. That brought the close to $878 a troy ounce, so whatever old high you use, $825, $850 or $875, we are now safely over all of them. We are on historic ground. Can $900 be more than just a coffee break away? Yes, my tone is flippant. Movements are getting to be very large in short spans of time. That is dangerous for markets because they tend to become more unstable with larger incremental hikes in the price. For long-term staying power, 20 trading days of $5 movements are better and more long lasting than $100 in five days. They also allow for better business conditions on coin show bourse floors. With the Florida United Numismatists bourse setting up later today, there can be no question that coin dealer behavior will be affected by any large swings in precious metal prices. No question, though, it is the very large moves that get the adrenalin pumping and capture the headlines.
1/9/2008 9:07:01 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)
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 Tuesday, January 08, 2008
Do you know the right price?
Posted by dave
I think thanks are in order to the individuals who have posted comments on this blog in the past week or so. It has been hard slogging for casual readers with statistics of precious metals prices and rates of return posted. I think the topics were worth covering from time to time. I have joked in this space that mentioning Britney Spears would get more attention. That is still true, but that is what gives the thoughtful people the edge in their numismatic hobby lives. Vicarious thrills are one thing, but they are not bankable in the long run. Who was the Britney Spears equivalent in January 1980? I have no idea. Perhaps someone will be kind enough to post a name or two on this column to enlighten us. Though few of us remember the pop cultural figures, we do remember the metals prices and consider them to be significant. We use this information to guide future decisions. It has been pointed out that in inflation-adjusted terms that the price of gold is far below 1980’s price. There is no question about that. What focuses my mind on the question, though, is what is the appropriate value of gold relative to everything else? We can make a case that gold was too high in 1980 relative to everything else. It was too low in 1968 at the official price of $35 an ounce. At those extremes, decisions to bur or sell might seem obvious. There were lines in front of coins shops in 1980 by individuals dumping their precious metal holdings as fast as they could. That should have told us something. So far, that phenomenon has not occurred again here, but supposedly it has started in India. Does it matter? Yes. Is it definitive? I don’t think so.
1/8/2008 9:04:20 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)
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 Monday, January 07, 2008
Perhaps we do need cheerleaders
Posted by Dave
Numismatics will have its Super Bowl before the National Football League does. It is this week. It is the whole week, but it is not a single event. At minimum it is two events. Two major conventions are set to occur. For the U.S. coin hobby, all eyes are on the Florida United Numismatists convention Jan. 10-13 in Orlando. For the world coin hobby, all eyes will be on the New York International Numismatic Convention Jan. 11-13. Both events have many major auctions associated with them both officially and unofficially. They begin before the conventions actually open. Many tens of millions of dollars’ worth of material goes on the auction block. How bidders respond will tell us a lot about what 2008 is going to be like for the commercial segment of the numismatic hobby. If weather permits, I hope to arrive in Orlando on Wednesday to take as much of it in as possible with other members of the Numismatic News staff. George Cuhaj will be in New York for the same reason. Let’s see what happens. We don’t have bands or cheerleaders, but there are a lot of people as intensely interested in the outcome of this week as any die hard football fan. Who are you rooting for?
1/7/2008 9:05:28 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)
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 Friday, January 04, 2008
Start looking for the real $1 million note
Posted by Dave
Give U.S. paper money a try in 2008. You might make history in future years by being the first to sell a $1 million small-size note. That day is still quite a ways into the future, but some collectors starting now will still be active when it happens. It may be fun to chase the items made of gold, silver or platinum that are currently making headlines, but moving along quietly higher are bank notes that the paper money hobby calls small-size currency. Small-size is basically the current size, which was introduced July 10, 1929, with the notes that went before them being larger. They, quite naturally enough, are called large-size currency. Hobbyists being hobbyists adopted terminology that made distinctions that highlighted the basic difference between the two. From that point on for a couple of generations, the small-size notes were collected like coin collectors collect Jefferson nickels now. They were there, but compared to the colorful large-size predecessors, they weren’t where the action was. That has been changing since the large-head currency was introduced in 1996 and the pace of change has accelerated since the widespread adoption of third-party grading by paper money collectors. Newcomers, who come mostly from the coin field, gravitate to what they know. They know a coin grading system that is numbered 1-70, so paper money collectors informally began using numbers. They know third-party coin grading firms, so it is not a leap of faith when the same firm offers third-party paper money grading. Finally, collectors usually begin in a new field with the most familiar items, and that would be small-size notes. Few people alive today remember using large-size notes. Besides, large-size notes have gotten expensive. There are still reasonable prices in the small-size field. If you are looking to collect something for the next 25 or 30 years, that would seem to me to point to something that still has a lot of upside potential left. These notes will seldom be in the headlines as long as precious metals are making new highs, but someday they will be. Collectors today have the opportunity of getting in, not on the ground floor, but you would need to be around 90 years old for that to truly be the case. Someday a small-size note will bring $1 million, which means the current rarities will have to rise in price by 25 or 30 times. Which note it will be is now up to you to find. Go for it.
1/4/2008 9:01:06 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)
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 Thursday, January 03, 2008
Off to the races
Posted by Dave
Wow, look at that parade of round numbers yesterday. Oil hit $100 a barrel. Gold went through the $850 record price of 1980 and closed at $857. Silver shot through $15. If it was a hard asset, it went up in price. Those of us with long memories might want to cast our minds back to January 1980, the last time gold was trading at such a lofty level. It might be a cautionary tale, because 1980’s rise did not have a happy ending. The first trading day of 1980 saw gold rise $26.80 to close at $575.50 a troy ounce. By Jan. 21, the price hit a trading high of $875 and closed at $825, while the London price, which was the benchmark, was at $850. The reasons for gold’s rise at that time are the same reasons as today. Inflation was perceived as rising out of control. The dollar was weak. The future was uncertain. Markets ran as far and as fast as buyer enthusiasm could carry them. But then buyers either lost their enthusiasm or ran out of money, with a little help from market trading authorities who discovered that Nelson Bunker Hunt had led an effort to try to corner the silver market. Controls were put on trading and the attempted corner was unwound, much to the detriment of silver’s price. It went from $50 a troy ounce to $10.80 by March 27, 1980. Gold followed the downward path set by silver. It hit $463 by March 27. It was an event that was followed by 20 years of a generally down market. January market enthusiasm is an interesting phenomenon to watch. Let’s hope it doesn’t get carried away as it did in 1980 and set the stage for a painful decline.
1/3/2008 9:00:57 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)
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 Wednesday, January 02, 2008
What does 2008 hold for precious metals?
Posted by Dave
Platinum was the market champion of the three precious metals that most collectors watch. In 2007, its price rose by 33.89 percent from the final close in 2006. Gold was no slouch. It came in close behind by registering a 31.44 percent gain. Silver was the laggard, but few are unhappy with the result. It was still up 15.44 percent for the year, far more than the rise that could be obtained in the Dow Jones Industrial Average of 6.4 percent, or in the average price of a house, which declined by a similar figure. Holders of the metals are feeling mighty good. I took a look at the performance of the three metals since the close of the year 2000. These numbers then reverse themselves. Silver is the champion with a gain of 223 percent followed by gold at 207 percent and platinum at 150 percent. These numbers also aren’t shabby. Anyone who owned platinum probably isn’t complaining that silver should have been the investment choice. Interestingly, gold is the most stable in its path. It went up all seven years, with gains of 2.46 percent in 2001, 24.72 percent in 2002, 19.59 percent in 2003, 5.24 percent in 2004, 18.29 percent in 2005, 22.84 percent in 2006 and 31.44 percent in 2007. Silver and platinum seem a bit more bound to the business cycle. Both of these actually declined in 2001, which was a weak economic year. Silver was barely lower with a figure of negative 0.13 percent, while platinum was down 19.05 percent. Then both perked up and never looked back. Silver’s pattern was up 4.85 percent in 2002, 24.00 percent in 2003, 14.35 percent in 2004, 29.57 percent in 2005, 45.33 percent in 2006 and 15.44 percent in 2007. Platinum registered increases of 22.60 percent in 2002, 34.23 percent in 2003, 6.46 percent in 2004, 12.65 percent in 2005, 17.09 percent in 2006 and 33.89 percent in 2007. Where will they go from here? Well, for today, look at the pattern and consider what you think will happen in 2008. If you want to share, post it below or e-mail me at david.harper@fwpubs.com.
1/2/2008 9:00:08 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)
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