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 Wednesday, December 19, 2007
Who has a better idea?
Posted by Dave
The energy bill passed yesterday. It will be signed by President George W. Bush today with all the pomp and fanfare the White House can muster. While much of the attention will be focused on automobile economy standards, the coin hobby needs to focus on what it does to the lowly light bulb. The incandescent bulb is on its way out. Why should we care? It is a little matter of our grading standards. They assume hobbyists use incandescent light because fluorescent light can conceal problems rather than reveal them. I am not advocating trashing the planet, but the hobby needs to plan how to go about its business as the new realities of the 21st century take hold. How will bourses be conducted if our current light bulbs become as rare as phonographs or videotapes? It might be easy for those of us of a certain age to simply shrug and figure it will be dealt with someday down the road by collectors who don’t happen to be us. The 2020 deadline seems a long way off. Change might be disruptive. It might be virtually painless. It would be nice, though, to define it ahead of time. The last time I wrote about this topic I received no response. Perhaps this time, some hobbyists might begin to think about it.
12/19/2007 8:57:21 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)
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 Tuesday, December 18, 2007
Run, it's the ANA on patrol
Posted by Dave
Applicants for the job of executive director of the American Numismatic Association will have the opportunity to personally deliver their resumes to ANA President Barry Stuppler at his bourse table at the Florida United Numismatists convention in January in Orlando. Whether planned or unplanned, the Jan. 11, 2008, deadline for resume submission occurs during the show. That is a good thing. Individuals who have numismatic backgrounds are the most likely individuals to be on hand at FUN to contact Stuppler there. It is to be hoped that someone among them will be able to take the ANA in hand to end the past decade of organizational tumult and take the organized hobby into the 21st century. Last week when I first heard of the job posting, I wrote here that a hobby background is the critical factor in any future executive director. I have marveled and been mystified at the vehemence of opinion held by noncollectors about what collectors and their national organization should do. That noncollector opinion I believe is what keeps leading ANA deeper and deeper into areas that are not only unproductive, but offend the collector membership. One of these is the steady increase in what I call the police function. There is a strange supposition, again among nonmembers, that it is the responsibility of the ANA to be some sort of regulator of all nonmember conduct. That the opposite of what should be the case. ANA should have standing to regulate only member conduct. ANA has loaned its good name to eBay to very little good result. If ANA does nothing, it looks weak and ineffective. If it does something, it infuriates those affected. In neither case does it help the ANA itself. If the only contact you have with an organization is to have your wrist slapped, or to be told of the many manifest failures of ANA to stop unethical conduct of nonmembers, why would you want to be associated with it? ANA is supposed to be an educational organization established for the benefit of its members, not a police power haphazardly interfering in nonmember matters.
12/18/2007 9:03:07 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)
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 Monday, December 17, 2007
Start with a bang
Posted by Dave
This week is a busy one in the Numismatic News office. Just as things speed up in the summertime instead of slowing down, the week just before Christmas is the one where our annual Florida United Numismatists convention special issue is put together. Instead of being able to focus on the holidays, the staff must focus on putting together one of the largest issues of the year. I hope readers will enjoy it when they see it. Always kept in mind is how the paper will look sitting on the table at the Krause Publications booth in Orlando come the actual opening of the show. We all want to be proud of it. Corporate budget season also provides a background of frantic activity when most people would like to ease off a little bit to enjoy the holidays. Regardless of what goes on here in Iola, I hope you will have some time in the remaining days of 2007 to relax a little, enjoy interaction with family and friends and re-energize for the coming of 2008. The new year does not come in slowly. The FUN convention assures that it will come in with a bang or a bust. There is scarcely any middle ground. The FUN issue itself start Numismatic News off with a bang. Occurring simultaneously with the FUN show Jan. 10-13 will be the New York International Numismatic Convention. Europeans will be in Gotham to buy up everything that is round and shiny with their strong euros. I don’t blame them. Make hay while the sun shines as the saying goes. The question for 2008 is how far can momentum carry us? Paper money is hot. World coins are hot. Coins of the U.S. have become a bit more selective. That is to be expected. Prices have gotten very rich indeed for classic issues.
12/17/2007 8:58:45 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)
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 Friday, December 14, 2007
Get 'em before public notices
Posted by Dave
A redesigned $5 Federal Reserve Note will be introduced March 13, 2008, the Bureau of Engraving and Printing announced yesterday. It will be better at resisting counterfeiting efforts because it will have two watermarks and a security thread relocated to the left of the large portrait of Lincoln. Will anyone accept it? This question is less about counterfeiting and more about the battered prestige of the U.S. currency around the world. Since World War I, when the dollar began to be widely looked to as a store of value and a source of stability, it became a real competitor to the British pound, which before then had been the international reserve currency. By the end of World War II, British finances were shattered and the Bretton Woods treaty made the dollar’s dominance complete. Dominance can be a bad thing if it creates an unreasonable arrogance, or an unrealistic laziness by those who experience it. Is that what the rest of the world is seeing in the economy behind the dollar, or is the value decline pure blind panic akin to a bank run? It is no secret the dollar has been declining since 2002. The pace of decline accelerated this year. I was in Germany in 2005 when the euro cost $1.25. It is now $1.45. Prices seemed high then. What will they be like when I visit Berlin in February 2008 to give Coin of the Year Awards? I am already curious. World prestige and value questions aside, the new $5 bill will prompt more newcomers to take up the hobby of U.S. paper money collecting. That is a good thing. It probably means more good times for those of us who are active in the field, though that also means higher prices will be paid by collectors for prize notes. Better buy them now before the general public becomes aware of the redesigned note. Most people probably won’t realize a new note exists until they get one in change. That means you have a 90-day head start.
12/14/2007 9:06:21 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)
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 Thursday, December 13, 2007
Help me find the question
Posted by Dave
I had a phone call yesterday that had an Alice in Wonderland quality about it. The conversation lasted 15 minutes and I am still not sure what prompted the call in the first place. It began routinely enough. A fellow said he had inherited a collection when he was very young back in 1947. It had been assembled during the prior 30 years. So far so good. I was prepared for the follow-up question: how do I sell it? Didn’t happen. Suddenly we swerved off into state quarters. How could you tell what they were worth, he asked? He had Numismatic News and Coin Market. The problem was he couldn’t say whether the coins were circulated or uncirculated. I told him circulated coins were coins that showed some evidence of wear and that they would be worth face value. Uncirculated coins would have no signs of wear. I referred him to a listing of roll offerings by a major Numismatic News advertiser. I said take half of the retail price and that would be a good place to start a negotiation, though no dealer is ever compelled to buy something he either doesn’t need, or at a price he doesn’t want to pay. The man seemed to indicate that he got his rolls at a bank. My presumption being that he was doing this as each design was issued, but he never said as much. Then we swerved again to coins of 1965-1969 that he was selling for silver. I said, “Oh, you are selling Kennedy half dollars.” He said no. Quarters. I said there were no silver quarters of that period. He insisted they were 30 percent silver and he had gotten that information from Numismatic News. I said there was no silver in the quarters, but if he was selling these to someone who was paying more than face value, they must be uncirculated, or the buyer thought they were. He gave me no more information. It is very difficult to provide any kind of useful information if a caller doesn’t provide enough background. I was basically stumped. The call ended with a request for a coin dealer in his home area. I gave him the name of a local shop. I know the dealer there won’t spend 15 minutes with him unless he gets to the real point.
12/13/2007 8:57:56 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)
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 Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Platinum Eagle gets a turn
Posted by Dave
I received a postcard yesterday from the U.S. Mint. It was in my personal mail to my home address, so I first saw it during lunch hour. The topic of the card was to alert me to the sale that starts tomorrow of the 10th anniversary platinum American Eagle two-coin set. Price of the set is $1,949.95. The coins in the set are half-ounce pieces. One is a proof. The other is what is called an enhanced reverse proof. I don’t have the money in my budget for this set, so I will pass. However, I have to note that the price is just $482.65 over the value of the metal in the coins, which works out to a 33 percent mark-up. That’s not bad by international standards. Precious metal coins struck by the world’s mints are usually twice bullion value, though recent rapid gains in metal prices have distorted this somewhat. Technically, that means the coins are cheap compared to their peers, though U.S. Mint mark-ups have always been lower than world averages. However, collectors don’t buy based on world averages. They buy based on gross price. How many collectors have a spare $2,000 just before Christmas? If they have the money, the next step is analyzing the mintage. It is up to 30,000. Will that be rare, or at least salable on eBay? At the beginning of the year, it might have been considered this. Now, with the Dolley Madison First Spouse coin still not sold out and the secondary market value of the Washington, Adams and Jefferson First Spouse coins pretty well collapsed back to bullion value, the determination is likely to go the other way. I have pointed out from time to time that the Mint needs to prune its offerings. It, however, is on the self-perpetuating rationalization that next year’s sales always have to be greater than this year’s sales and that requires more and more products. When businesses do that, it works until it doesn’t and then sales collapse and then there are big write-offs. Remember the baseball card boom or Beanie Babies? You get my point. If you are looking into it, check out www.usmint.gov, the Mint’s Web site.
12/12/2007 9:06:03 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)
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 Tuesday, December 11, 2007
Sunday show hours end
Posted by Dave
Want to start a numismatic bar fight? Just bring up the subject of Sunday bourse hours at a major convention. This topic pops us this week because the Whitman Baltimore show announced a new schedule that eliminated Sunday hours completely. The owners then backed off a bit after some reactions from dealers who like Sunday hours and who have bourse contracts. The new Sunday-less schedule will go into effect, but just one show later in the year. I agree with Whitman. Sunday hours should be eliminated for multi-day shows and conventions. It is sad to see bourses on a Sunday morning. You could hold bowling tournaments in the aisles and not hurt anybody. Dealers who have been on the road for days are tired and want to go home, or have already gone. The public does not support Sunday hours in any large numbers. So what’s the problem? Naturally there are a few dealers who do well on Sundays and there are a few collectors who do show up. The question becomes should these few set the conditions under which the rest operate? Whitman decided a qualified no. It recognized the point by postponing implementation by one show, but proceeded with its plan. The bar fight aspect is that supporters of Sunday hours say we are destroying the future of the hobby by not being open. The people who want to come on Sundays will desert the hobby forever. I don’t agree. There are plenty of one-day Saturday and Sunday shows around the country for people who can’t go to a show during the week. Yes, it is too bad that they might miss a major show, but that is life. They will have to go to another one sometime in the future. When conditions change, the hobby, including shows, have to change with it. What is remarkable is how many years the hobby has stuck with Sunday hours given the declining attendance. Show promoters and dealers gave it the old college try and now is the time to recognize the obvious and move on.
12/11/2007 8:59:54 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)
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 Monday, December 10, 2007
Coins better be the qualification
Posted by Dave
Looking for a career change? The position of American Numismatic Association executive director might just be the position for you. Then again, it might not. The ANA posted the job on Friday. Candidates have until Jan. 11 to submit their applications and resumes. All you have to do is straighten out an organization beset by lawsuits, alienated staff, bleeding finances and a board as much focused on 1968 as 2008. Sound like the ideal job? Far from it. The ANA’s track record in finding someone to manage the organization has been less than stellar. It first took a turn toward professional management instead of hobby management in 1987 when it decided to hire a retiring director of the Bureau of Engraving and Printing at the Atlanta convention. Professional management is all well and good, but with each succeeding candidate, the hobby connection seems to have been lost in the shuffle. The ANA board seems to realize this – at least partially. The press release says candidates for the positioin “must have considerable knowledge of and interest in the subject matter dealt with by the ANA or a similar hobby field.” What are we now, the hobby that dare not speak its name? My view is the board has had its priorities precisely reversed. The single most important factor is actually being a hobbyist. Everything else can be taught. The board’s philosophy has been to ask for a glittering management resume and the hobby part can be taught. Well, the last decade of experience seems to indicate that it cannot be taught. We hobbyists have been treated condescendingly and we know it. We don’t like it. We are ANA members precisely because we are coin and paper money collectors and precisely because all other considerations are basically irrelevant. The hobby qualification must be central in a new ANA executive director’s background. Other qualifications are significant but any one of them is not absolutely essential, unless of course you think that the next Vatican conclave to elect a new Pope should focus solely on management skills.
12/10/2007 9:02:56 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)
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 Friday, December 07, 2007
Take advantage of freebies
Posted by Dave
Free and the Internet seem to go hand in hand. Users expect things to cost nothing. It is not so with print publications, but there are still freebies there, too, and hobbyists should consider taking advantage of them. Numismatic News offers all of its subscribers a free classified ad each week. Regular users get more value from the classifieds than they pay for the subscription. Show organizers get a minimum of three free listings for their shows in the weekly Show Directory plus appearances in the twice yearly Show and Auction Guide if they get the notices of shows to us far enough in advance. That makes five free listings. All that is required basically is that the organizers ask. Numismatic News includes a free show listing form in every issue. If snail mail isn’t the show organizer's cup of tea, he or she has the option of e-mailing the information to Lisa Dombrowski at lisa.dombrowski@fwpubs.com. They can even telephone (800) 573-0333 if they want to add paid listings to the free ones for just $10 a week. I know that budgets are tight. Take advantage of these two freebies and stretch your hobby dollars. Does this read like an advertisement? Well, I plead guilty. I am proud of the paper and its free services and I hope readers will take advantage of these free opportunities to enrich their hobby experiences.
12/7/2007 8:55:42 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)
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 Thursday, December 06, 2007
2008 might just be a good year
Posted by Dave
What does the future hold for us in 2008? Everybody would like to know. Many opinions are expressed, especially in the financial news media. I am not in a position to take advantage of sophisticated economic models. I have to rely on what I can see and what I have experienced. From that perspective, there is good news. Coin dealers and others active in numismatics have expressed their views in the most concrete way possible: with their cash. I just deadlined the January 2008 issue of World Coin News. Display ad revenue decisively exceeded the target in our annual budget. The issue will be distributed at the Florida United Numismatists convention and the New York International Numismatic Convention in January. This result does not mean the financial prognosticators who are pessimistic about next year are wrong, but it does cast some doubt. By both outlook and habit I am an optimist. I would love to be in the position of those hobbyists who live in the euro economies. Coins here seem incredibly cheap and euro-based buyers are aggressively in acquisition mode. I saw a comment by World Coin News writer Bob Reis that his business was now higher abroad than domestically. That, he noted, had never happened before. Every business person knows that profit is where you find it and you have to adjust behavior accordingly to maximize outcomes in ever changing conditions. Conditions most assuredly are changing. But that isn’t necessarily a negative. It just means things are different. I like different. Hobby life would be boring if nothing ever changed. There I go again, being the optimist.
12/6/2007 8:58:36 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)
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 Wednesday, December 05, 2007
Kisses from the Mint?
Posted by Dave
Every Halloween I get a lesson in what is called line extension. I get to see what new forms familiar candies take. The Mint is practicing line extension. The question is will coin buyers bite. If I have a big Hershey bar, little Kisses or bags of the little bars, it is all chocolate to me. It tastes great. What about dollar coins? The Mint has a slew of new ways to buy dollar coins. A new set that went on sale Monday offers a West Point uncirculated silver American Eagle, four uncirculated Presidential dollar coins from Philadelphia and an uncirculated Sacagawea dollar from Denver. The price is $31.95. You might call it a dollar coin type set. Then there are four-coin Presidential uncirculated sets for $8.95 from either Philadelphia or Denver. There is an eight-coin uncirculated set that includes the issues of both mints. Its price is $15.95. Individual Presidential proofs are offered for $5.95 each. Is there a market for these offerings? Are there people who don’t want a full proof set who decide that they really would like just a proof Madison dollar? It is certainly possible, but I have my doubts of it being an economically viable product line extension. We have had packaging errors in the past when there were just proof sets and mint sets to keep track of. With all of these line extensions, the possibilities for packaging mishaps explode geometrically. Already Ken Potter in recent years has noted that quality control for proof sets just isn’t what it used to be. The evidence comes in the many reports to him of proof coins with errors from minor die cracks to spiked heads. Then there is the secondary market. For sure the many packaging options will drive price guide publishers crazy.
12/5/2007 9:08:16 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)
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 Tuesday, December 04, 2007
What's next for First Spouse program?
Posted by Dave
The Dolley Madison First Spouse gold coin is not yet sold out more than two weeks after it went on sale Nov. 19. This situation was not unexpected. The price hike for this, the fourth coin in the series, upset many potential buyers. The expense of routinely buying expensive gold coins is beginning to hit home with collectors who are facing the costs of building a set of approximately 40 designs and 80 coins (if we assume they want both proof and uncirculated versions). And the instant profit available to any buyer who acquires what can be popular on eBay is missing. Of the three factors, the eBay factor is probably the most critical for this set. Once this factor disappears, can it ever return? That raises other questions in my mind that I would ask all collectors. Have you written off the idea of ever collecting a complete set of First Spouse gold coins? Have you written off the possibility of ever buying even one First Spouse coin? If you happen to have purchased any of the first three, will you continue to keep them, or will you sell them while the price of gold is high and move on to other areas? I would like to know the answers. I think the Mint would like to know, too.
12/4/2007 9:03:53 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)
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