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 Tuesday, September 25, 2007
What is the gold record?
Posted by dave

The fact that gold is trading at levels not seen since 1980, raises a question as to just what is the record price for gold.

$850 a troy ounce seems to be the popular figure, but others can justifiably cite $875 or $825.

What are these?

Well, the $850 is the mark achieved in London on that record setting bullion run. At the time, a generation ago, the London market was still looked upon as the most important bullion market because of its historical role in bullion trading.

New York had only resumed gold bullion trading in 1975 after it became legal to own gold in the United States again, Dec. 31, 1974.

The New York record trading price was $875 a troy ounce, but it was not a closing high Jan. 21, 1980. The actual close that day was $825.

All three prices have legitimate reasons to be cited as the record, but because of the importance of London at the time, Numismatic News has always cited the $850 price as the high. It is a handy round-sounding number that just happens to split the difference between $875 and $825.

Since the heady days of 1980, New York has gained more importance in gold trading and Numismatic News adopted New York prices as the benchmark rather than London. Those are the numbers I have used for many years.

It is fair to say that any market that sees gold hit and one of those three numbers will probably be cited by headline writers. But for historical comparison purposes, it is always nice to have at least one set of numbers that is an apples to apples comparison.

For me the numbers to use as a yardstick are New York numbers.



9/25/2007 9:12:11 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [0]
 Monday, September 24, 2007
Buying mood sweeps markets
Posted by dave

The gold market and the stock market seem almost giddy. A rate cut on the overnight federal funds rate of one-half of one percent Sept. 18 have sent both metals and stocks rocketing higher.

Gold has pushed through the May 11, 2006, high and returned the precious metal to a level not seen since Jan. 21, 1980, the date of its all-time high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is nearing its all-time high, which was just over 14,000 hit on July 19 of this year.

Enthusiasm from both markets has a tendency to spill over into the coin market, but because there isn’t a publicly reported average like the Dow, it is more difficult to pick up on it.

Rising gold prices tend to improve coin dealer cash flow and they attract an investor crowd into numismatics. When dealers have more money and investors are chasing specific coins, coin prices tend to rise.

The stock market part of this deal affects collectors themselves. Because so many of them are in retirement plans that benefit from stock market gains, collectors can feel more free to spend money on their coins.

About the only thing that remains to be seen is what happens to house prices. Rising home prices also make collectors feel pretty optimistic and more willing to buy coins.

The timing of the Long Beach Coin, Stamp and Collectibles Expo, which starts Sept. 27, couldn’t be better. It will be an opportunity for all of the market players to assess the state of things in light of the new reality in the gold and stock markets.



9/24/2007 9:01:08 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [0]
 Friday, September 21, 2007
Will purple make you look for red and blue?
Posted by dave

Yesterday’s debut of the new design for the $5 Federal Reserve Note is good news for collectors. Any time a design is changed on notes or coins, the public notices and some discover numismatics in the process.

Regular design changes to U.S. paper money began occurring in 1996 with the advent of what hobbyists call the “Big Head” design for the $100 Federal Reserve Note. It was no accident that the paper money hobby really took off following this event.

We have since cycled through $50s, $20s and $10s. Some have changed a couple of times, with the most recent generation of notes having subtle shades of color.

Subtle may be good. The Treasury was worried about negative public reaction to bold use of color.

The new $5 will have a large purple “5” on the lower left of the back of the note, or is it lavender or mauve? Which name is more subtle?

But whether the Treasury worries about color are justified or not, they have definitely succeeded in the past 11 years with making the public comfortable with new notes.

I looked in my wallet to pull a $5 and a $10 as references and it occurred to me that the $10 is the first generation of Big Head note, not the second, so older notes obviously are still circulating side by side with the current series without many people noticing a difference.

Subtle colors may be good for another reason. It distinguishes current paper money from the earlier issues that ran from the 1860s to the 1960s. Few remember the blue seals of Silver Certificates and the red seals of United States Notes. Almost nobody recalls yellow seals of Gold Certificates. These colors helped the public make distinctions between types of paper and payment. Now color is solely a counterfeit deterrent.

The idea of having different classes of money sounds odd or quaint, but finding out about them as a collector is exciting.

Whether the “5” on the $5 is purple or not is not the question. The question is how many people who happen to notice the color at all will go on to find the bolder colors on the notes of prior generations and avidly collect them? I think quite a few.



9/21/2007 9:12:59 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [1]
 Thursday, September 20, 2007
Run, this is good for you
Posted by Dave

When someone tells you that something will be good for you, it is generally a sign to head for the hills because something unpleasant is about to happen.

Here is your chance. Head for the hills, because what I am about to write may be good for you.

It is budget season. Most people have all they can do to stay awake when the topic of budgets occurs, but they are critically important documents whether in business or government, because a budget enables you to do what you want to do or think you should do.

Collectors should have hobby budgets. How much money do you think you will spend on coins in 2008? Do you have any idea? That is a good first step. Come up with a number.

Many hobby purchases can become family footballs if there is no knowledge of amounts and timing by other members of the family.

Is a purchase of that MS-65 1890-S Morgan dollar going to compete with getting braces for one of your children, or the next installment on a college tuition payment?

When put in that light, the collecting expenditure looks mighty selfish.

However, if you can make your total hobby expenditures a known figure and an expected event, the discussion can than hinge on total family needs and fair allocation among all the family members.

Collectors are not known for starving their children or preventing them from going to college, but in my experience there have been, let us say “issues” between spouses when the subject of hobby expenditures arises.

Avoid those issues and get an agreed number on the table. The budget can also include time. How many Saturdays or Sundays will you be off attending a coin show? When the lawn needs mowing or the garage door needs fixing, time for show visits can look mighty selfish.

I know that somehow or other collectors get their licks in, but a budget could make the process far more pleasant. Believe me, a budget is good for you.

Hello? Anybody there? Hello?



9/20/2007 8:55:46 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [0]
 Wednesday, September 19, 2007
Golden opportunity might be in mintages
Posted by Dave

With gold bullion knocking on a door not opened to it since January 1980 in terms of prices, smart collectors should be thinking about the opportunities that might open up in the gold coin market.

This has nothing to do with gold speculation and everything to do with being a true collector.

If we learned any lesson at all in 1980 it is that mintage figures and condition meant less and less as gold hit higher and higher highs. For a time, everything but the true jewels of the various gold series saw their values simply boiled down to a formula of actual gold weight times the day’s price of gold. It seemed like cultural vandalism. The only decision collectors had was “are you selling, or not?” There were plenty of people in line to dump whatever they could at the record prices.

In such a market, distortions develop. A coin that is relatively scarce that can be bought for metallic value might just be a good deal long term. When gold prices stabilize, relative scarcities reassert themselves.

One of those relative scarcities to consider is in the new First Spouse series. Mintages have been 20,000 apiece, proof versus uncirculated in the sellouts. That is historically unusual. Collectors prefer proofs over time by a factor of 3:1 or 4:1. The numbers would seem to indicate that the proofs might just be undervalued relative to the uncirculated pieces.

Of course, all bets are off it gold goes to $100 an ounce, but that doesn’t seem likely.

Every collector should keep at least one eye on long-term values and scarcity relationships when considering the purchase of coins with high bullion values. It could pay off in the long run.



9/19/2007 8:59:41 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [0]
 Tuesday, September 18, 2007
Buzz or Britney?
Posted by Dave

I was lying on a doctor’s examination table not long after I posted yesterday’s blog. Dramatic it was not, though the importance of vision to successfully collecting coins was a thought not lost on me.

I got something in my eye Sunday night. Monday morning it was still there. After the blog was done, the little particle shifted and made further work difficult and a trip to the doctor’s office a goal of some urgency.

I seem to have gotten off fairly lightly. The doctor showed me the particle and diagnosed a small scratch on the cornea of my right eye. There was really nothing to worry about, but standard operating procedure is to prescribe antibiotic drops to be administered every four hours when I am awake for seven days. An eye infection is something to be avoided.

I have never taken my vision for granted. I started wearing glasses when I was eight years old, the same age as when I started collecting coins. Could there be a connection? Who knows? If there is, I have given up a great deal of my seeing ability in the pursuit of my hobby.

While I have written often about the beneficial effects of coin collecting on health, I have never turned it around and pointed out that good health makes the hobby that much more enjoyable.

Don’t take your eyes for granted. A scratch on one of them can do more damage to your life than one found on the cheek of an otherwise beautiful Morgan dollar.

I can turn this episode into a numismatic story, but what I was really thinking as I tried to glance through the waiting room magazines was that this blog would be more popular if I had something to say about Britney Spears.



9/18/2007 9:02:44 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [1]
 Monday, September 17, 2007
What's your story?
Posted by Dave

Most collectors experience a “eureka” moment. Before it occurs, they are like the rest of the population. After it occurs,  they grab the coin price guides and are on the prowl.

This subject matter occurred to me in a roundabout way. I broke my favorite coffee cup yesterday morning. My days usually begin at 5 a.m. and not long after that I am consuming my first morning cup of coffee in my favorite coffee cup.

There is no real reason to become attached to inanimate objects, but somehow or other, these crazy attachments form. It is probably a matter of routine. At that hour of the morning, I don’t want to have to think about what I am doing. “Grab cup, pour coffee” is the height of my intellectual capacity in those first few minutes of a new day. I could grab any number of cups or mugs, but I don’t.

Now I have no choice.

I have a coin to which I have formed a similar attachment. It provided me with my eureka moment and is probably why I am a coin collector. It is a 1909 Lincoln cent. I have owned it for 44 years. It has almost no value, but it is priceless to me because of what followed.

I found it when I was eight years old going through all the coins in the house. I had seen an ad in a comic book. In it was the promise that some cents dated before 1940 would be purchased for premium prices. I wanted that money.

I found a number of cents that met the threshold of having dates before 1940. The 1909 was the prize.

Something 54 years old in my hands seemed almost beyond comprehension at the time. I did not mail it in. Instead, my mother saw what I was doing and channeled it by taking me to a hobby shop. I got my first Whitman album. Actually, there were two. At the time, they ran 1909-1940 and 1941 to date. There were mintage figures in those albums that I could see which dates were the truly scarce ones. None that I had were.

My mother probably knew that would be the result. On the other hand, she did not realize at the time what a powerful force had been let loose in my life.

But I had formed my attachment to that 1909 Lincoln cent. I am still on the hobby prowl. Do they go hand in hand? They sure seem to.

What’s your story? Comment here or send me an e-mail at david.harper@fwpubs.com



9/17/2007 9:08:21 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [0]
 Friday, September 14, 2007
Change Eagle prices daily
Posted by Dave

When uncirculated “W” mintmarked gold American Eagle sales were stopped yesterday afternoon, a story was posted on www.Numismaticnews.net by the Numismatic News staff.
2007AEGoldUncObv.1.jpg
Sales are suspended for up to two weeks as the Mint reviews its options. A government agency can do this. A business would not. Getting something back up and available as quickly as possible would be the goal of business. Navigating the bureaucracy and getting everybody to sign off on the new prices is the government’s goal.

Even the government does not want to sell something at less than market value. That is laudable and it is the essence of my point here.

Because the “W” coins are supposedly bullion coins sold directly to collectors by the Mint and because the prices of ordinary bullion coins sold through the national dealer network fluctuate daily, the Mint should consider setting daily or weekly prices for the “W” gold bullion coins and the "W" platinum and silver bullion Eagles, too, while the staff is at it.

In volatile market times, what is the alternative? What if the Mint reprices the gold American Eagles at new and higher prices and gold takes a tumble? What if gold shoots up to $1,000 as some are forecasting?

Would the result be two-week sales suspensions at $800 an ounce, $900 an ounce and $1,000? That would add up to eight weeks of suspended sales, including this one, if such a scenario unfolds.

Call bullion bullion and price it like bullion. That means the prices fluctuate. Collectors understand. They might grouse about not getting a bargain, but they understand.



9/14/2007 9:03:33 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [2]
 Thursday, September 13, 2007
But can you see it?
Posted by dave

If a tree falls in a forest and nobody is there to hear it, did it really happen?
2007PJeffDDO001bArW.jpg
You might ask a similar question about the current wave of error Presidential dollar coins and error coins in general.

However provable an error might be as far as its basic existence, if you cannot see it easily with the naked eye, as far as the market is concerned, it doesn’t exist, or at best is a flash in the pan that should be avoided unless you happen to like spending hard earned money for certain coins’ 15 minutes of fame.

A doubled-die error has been reported for the Jefferson dollar. Numismatic News error authority Ken Potter has written a story. Doubled dies often reside on the concierge floor of the error hobby hotel. This one doesn’t look like it will make it to that level of importance. It is hard to see. It is hard to figure out what precisely has been doubled.

When someone looks at a 1955 doubled-die cent, you immediately see the doubling and you immediately comprehend what part of the original design was duplicated. Other nondoubling errors need to meet the same visual test. When you look at a plain edge Presidential dollar you know the date, mintmark and mottoes are missing. These errors stand the test of time. They do so in part because you can see them easily.

For the new doubled-die Jefferson dollar, obvious it isn’t. It is important at this time because it is the first reported Jefferson dollar error. I am sure there will be others. Perhaps we will get a plain edge despite Mint efforts to improve its quality control. We’ll see.

Keep looking for errors, but not every one is going to make the cut and become a mainstream collectible.



9/13/2007 9:04:45 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [0]
 Wednesday, September 12, 2007
To sell wisely, practice, practice, practice
Posted by Dave

Football season has me thinking. A good team has both a first class offense and a first class defense. Teams with one or the other don’t make the playoffs.

Coin collecting is a bit like building a good football team. Collectors need to know how to buy, but they also need to know how to sell. Many tend to ignore the selling part, but they do so at great cost to themselves and their heirs.

If a collector does not know how to sell, he is at the mercy of strangers. I get calls from frustrated heirs who need help and don’t know how to get it. I know they have a problem, but there are not enough hours in the day for me to do my job and run a coin selling consulting service. I have to refer heirs to their local coin dealers, and tell them they need to prepare for the encounter by getting some books and price guides to try to get a ballpark idea of what they have. It isn’t easy for them.

If you are a collector who hasn’t worked on a sales game, it is time to start. Sell something, anything. You choose. Then pick the method you want to sell it.

Like the shampoo directions, lather, rinse, repeat, you do this over and over again until you are good at it. Then you can rest easy that you will get maximum value for your holdings when the time comes.

Where do you go to sell? Well, consider the following:

A collector can drop by the local coin shop and do a deal right on the spot. Not every locality has a coin shop, so that may not be the way to go.

Collectors can visit local coin shows as they occur. Some areas have monthly shows. Others have annual shows in the VFW Hall, or other convenient spot. Checking the Show Directory in Numismatic News for your area should reveal shows just about every weekend within easy driving distance.

There is the Internet  auction alternative. Many buyers of the First Spouse gold coins turned right around and offered them on eBay even before they received delivery of the coins.

Coins can be offered for sale to advertisers in Numismatic News. Give them a call, send them an e-mail or even write them a letter to tell them what you have and what price you might be looking for. These dealers might buy. They might not. They are busy. There are some dealers who run regular buy ads, so this would be the place to start.

Other Numismatic News readers like the free classified ads that are given to subscribers. They enjoy the give and take. (It is as much fun to read what is for sale as it is to offer something for sale to others.)

Collectors with larger holdings have even more options. They can consign their holdings to auction companies. They can ask a major dealer to meet them to discuss a purchase.

Like a good football team, you need to practice both parts of the game, buying and selling, to maximize your hobby performance.



9/12/2007 9:04:31 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [1]
 Tuesday, September 11, 2007
Now it is Wyoming's turn
Posted by Dave

When the state quarter program began in 1999, nobody knew if collector enthusiasm could be maintained for 50 coin designs issued over a span of 10 years. The 1992 Canadian program on which it was based was a success, but it lasted only a year and honored just 12 provinces and territories.

What would happen over 10 years in the United States nobody knew.

I didn’t know the answer either. I was enthusiastic about the program. I believed it would help inspire people to collect coins because the decision to collect is often taken following some sort of prompt given by receiving a specific piece in change. The more quarter designs out there for people to receive, the more possible prompting moments can occur.

But like everyone, I wondered if interest could be sustained for 10 years. It seemed like a large challenge. Kids grow up. Adult interests and finances change. One thing I did recommend was that the U.S. Mint continue to treat each launch ceremony as if it were the first. The Mint probably needed no comment from me to do this, but I am pleased to say that when the Wyoming state quarter is released officially in Cheyenne at 10 a.m. on Friday, Sept. 14, Mint Director Ed Moy will join Gov. Dave Freudenthal and other dignitaries at the Civic Center.
 
The planned event is worthy of the first issue.

There will be just six ceremonies more after this event in Cheyenne, one more this year for Utah, and five next year. Then the program is over. Who would believe 10 years can go so fast?

There are not enough congratulations to go to all the people who have made the state quarter program such a success. But the Mint should be recongized as an institution for giving every state its opportunity to celebrate its history as if it were the first state so honored.

On Friday, it is the turn of the great state of Wyoming. Congratulations. The nation’s collectors will be watching.



9/11/2007 9:04:58 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [1]
 Monday, September 10, 2007
How many troy ounces in a quart?
Posted by Dave

My job of delivering news to collectors is an ever challenging one. One aspect of it is to determine how much information is too much and how much is too little. That is not as easy as you might think.

Consider some phone calls last week. One had to do with the Metals section on Page 4 that Numismatic News publishes every week. When markets are moving, collectors want to know what the reference point is. Advertisers put caveats in their print ads that bullion coin prices are subject to change without notice because of daily fluctuations.

The prices on Page 4 provide a useful reference point as to what prices prevailed as the paper was being put together. Gold, silver, platinum and palladium have been there for years. In recent months staff decided to add nickel, copper and zinc because of all the stories we have been running when these base metals were hitting new highs.

A phone caller asked what unit of weight was being quoted. I was startled. I admit I wanted to joke that gold isn’t sold by the quart, but I didn’t. The caller had a good question. Everyone has to find out this information at some point, but I had not figured on the possibility that even with the many published stories this year, someone would not know that copper, zinc and nickel trade by the avoirdupois pound and gold, silver, platinum and palladium trade by the troy ounce.

Another caller said he had driven 500 miles to Wyoming for a debut of that state’s quarter because of a box on the Mint Statistics page that said, “Wyoming Quarter Release: Sept. 4, 2007.” The caller interpreted that as the ceremony date when it fact it was the date the coins were released to the banking system and when the Mint began to sell bags and rolls.

When that box has been dropped out occasionally for space reasons, I get called by another reader who tells me he relies on that box.

What to do? It is simply a signal to me that my work is never done. Every week is a new one with a potentially new audience and I must do my best to keep the veterans engaged and yet help bring others along on the grand ride that is this hobby.



9/10/2007 9:06:27 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [0]