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 Wednesday, September 19, 2007
Golden opportunity might be in mintages
Posted by Dave
With gold bullion knocking on a door not opened to it since January 1980 in terms of prices, smart collectors should be thinking about the opportunities that might open up in the gold coin market. This has nothing to do with gold speculation and everything to do with being a true collector. If we learned any lesson at all in 1980 it is that mintage figures and condition meant less and less as gold hit higher and higher highs. For a time, everything but the true jewels of the various gold series saw their values simply boiled down to a formula of actual gold weight times the day’s price of gold. It seemed like cultural vandalism. The only decision collectors had was “are you selling, or not?” There were plenty of people in line to dump whatever they could at the record prices. In such a market, distortions develop. A coin that is relatively scarce that can be bought for metallic value might just be a good deal long term. When gold prices stabilize, relative scarcities reassert themselves. One of those relative scarcities to consider is in the new First Spouse series. Mintages have been 20,000 apiece, proof versus uncirculated in the sellouts. That is historically unusual. Collectors prefer proofs over time by a factor of 3:1 or 4:1. The numbers would seem to indicate that the proofs might just be undervalued relative to the uncirculated pieces. Of course, all bets are off it gold goes to $100 an ounce, but that doesn’t seem likely. Every collector should keep at least one eye on long-term values and scarcity relationships when considering the purchase of coins with high bullion values. It could pay off in the long run.
9/19/2007 8:59:41 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Tuesday, September 18, 2007
Buzz or Britney?
Posted by Dave
I was lying on a doctor’s examination table not long after I posted yesterday’s blog. Dramatic it was not, though the importance of vision to successfully collecting coins was a thought not lost on me. I got something in my eye Sunday night. Monday morning it was still there. After the blog was done, the little particle shifted and made further work difficult and a trip to the doctor’s office a goal of some urgency. I seem to have gotten off fairly lightly. The doctor showed me the particle and diagnosed a small scratch on the cornea of my right eye. There was really nothing to worry about, but standard operating procedure is to prescribe antibiotic drops to be administered every four hours when I am awake for seven days. An eye infection is something to be avoided. I have never taken my vision for granted. I started wearing glasses when I was eight years old, the same age as when I started collecting coins. Could there be a connection? Who knows? If there is, I have given up a great deal of my seeing ability in the pursuit of my hobby. While I have written often about the beneficial effects of coin collecting on health, I have never turned it around and pointed out that good health makes the hobby that much more enjoyable. Don’t take your eyes for granted. A scratch on one of them can do more damage to your life than one found on the cheek of an otherwise beautiful Morgan dollar. I can turn this episode into a numismatic story, but what I was really thinking as I tried to glance through the waiting room magazines was that this blog would be more popular if I had something to say about Britney Spears.
9/18/2007 9:02:44 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Monday, September 17, 2007
What's your story?
Posted by Dave
Most collectors experience a “eureka” moment. Before it occurs, they are like the rest of the population. After it occurs, they grab the coin price guides and are on the prowl. This subject matter occurred to me in a roundabout way. I broke my favorite coffee cup yesterday morning. My days usually begin at 5 a.m. and not long after that I am consuming my first morning cup of coffee in my favorite coffee cup. There is no real reason to become attached to inanimate objects, but somehow or other, these crazy attachments form. It is probably a matter of routine. At that hour of the morning, I don’t want to have to think about what I am doing. “Grab cup, pour coffee” is the height of my intellectual capacity in those first few minutes of a new day. I could grab any number of cups or mugs, but I don’t. Now I have no choice. I have a coin to which I have formed a similar attachment. It provided me with my eureka moment and is probably why I am a coin collector. It is a 1909 Lincoln cent. I have owned it for 44 years. It has almost no value, but it is priceless to me because of what followed. I found it when I was eight years old going through all the coins in the house. I had seen an ad in a comic book. In it was the promise that some cents dated before 1940 would be purchased for premium prices. I wanted that money. I found a number of cents that met the threshold of having dates before 1940. The 1909 was the prize. Something 54 years old in my hands seemed almost beyond comprehension at the time. I did not mail it in. Instead, my mother saw what I was doing and channeled it by taking me to a hobby shop. I got my first Whitman album. Actually, there were two. At the time, they ran 1909-1940 and 1941 to date. There were mintage figures in those albums that I could see which dates were the truly scarce ones. None that I had were. My mother probably knew that would be the result. On the other hand, she did not realize at the time what a powerful force had been let loose in my life. But I had formed my attachment to that 1909 Lincoln cent. I am still on the hobby prowl. Do they go hand in hand? They sure seem to. What’s your story? Comment here or send me an e-mail at david.harper@fwpubs.com
9/17/2007 9:08:21 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Friday, September 14, 2007
Change Eagle prices daily
Posted by Dave
When uncirculated “W” mintmarked gold American Eagle sales were stopped yesterday afternoon, a story was posted on www.Numismaticnews.net by the Numismatic News staff.  Sales are suspended for up to two weeks as the Mint reviews its options. A government agency can do this. A business would not. Getting something back up and available as quickly as possible would be the goal of business. Navigating the bureaucracy and getting everybody to sign off on the new prices is the government’s goal. Even the government does not want to sell something at less than market value. That is laudable and it is the essence of my point here. Because the “W” coins are supposedly bullion coins sold directly to collectors by the Mint and because the prices of ordinary bullion coins sold through the national dealer network fluctuate daily, the Mint should consider setting daily or weekly prices for the “W” gold bullion coins and the "W" platinum and silver bullion Eagles, too, while the staff is at it. In volatile market times, what is the alternative? What if the Mint reprices the gold American Eagles at new and higher prices and gold takes a tumble? What if gold shoots up to $1,000 as some are forecasting? Would the result be two-week sales suspensions at $800 an ounce, $900 an ounce and $1,000? That would add up to eight weeks of suspended sales, including this one, if such a scenario unfolds. Call bullion bullion and price it like bullion. That means the prices fluctuate. Collectors understand. They might grouse about not getting a bargain, but they understand.
9/14/2007 9:03:33 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Thursday, September 13, 2007
But can you see it?
Posted by dave
If a tree falls in a forest and nobody is there to hear it, did it really happen?  You might ask a similar question about the current wave of error Presidential dollar coins and error coins in general. However provable an error might be as far as its basic existence, if you cannot see it easily with the naked eye, as far as the market is concerned, it doesn’t exist, or at best is a flash in the pan that should be avoided unless you happen to like spending hard earned money for certain coins’ 15 minutes of fame. A doubled-die error has been reported for the Jefferson dollar. Numismatic News error authority Ken Potter has written a story. Doubled dies often reside on the concierge floor of the error hobby hotel. This one doesn’t look like it will make it to that level of importance. It is hard to see. It is hard to figure out what precisely has been doubled. When someone looks at a 1955 doubled-die cent, you immediately see the doubling and you immediately comprehend what part of the original design was duplicated. Other nondoubling errors need to meet the same visual test. When you look at a plain edge Presidential dollar you know the date, mintmark and mottoes are missing. These errors stand the test of time. They do so in part because you can see them easily. For the new doubled-die Jefferson dollar, obvious it isn’t. It is important at this time because it is the first reported Jefferson dollar error. I am sure there will be others. Perhaps we will get a plain edge despite Mint efforts to improve its quality control. We’ll see. Keep looking for errors, but not every one is going to make the cut and become a mainstream collectible.
9/13/2007 9:04:45 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Wednesday, September 12, 2007
To sell wisely, practice, practice, practice
Posted by Dave
Football season has me thinking. A good team has both a first class offense and a first class defense. Teams with one or the other don’t make the playoffs. Coin collecting is a bit like building a good football team. Collectors need to know how to buy, but they also need to know how to sell. Many tend to ignore the selling part, but they do so at great cost to themselves and their heirs. If a collector does not know how to sell, he is at the mercy of strangers. I get calls from frustrated heirs who need help and don’t know how to get it. I know they have a problem, but there are not enough hours in the day for me to do my job and run a coin selling consulting service. I have to refer heirs to their local coin dealers, and tell them they need to prepare for the encounter by getting some books and price guides to try to get a ballpark idea of what they have. It isn’t easy for them. If you are a collector who hasn’t worked on a sales game, it is time to start. Sell something, anything. You choose. Then pick the method you want to sell it. Like the shampoo directions, lather, rinse, repeat, you do this over and over again until you are good at it. Then you can rest easy that you will get maximum value for your holdings when the time comes. Where do you go to sell? Well, consider the following: A collector can drop by the local coin shop and do a deal right on the spot. Not every locality has a coin shop, so that may not be the way to go. Collectors can visit local coin shows as they occur. Some areas have monthly shows. Others have annual shows in the VFW Hall, or other convenient spot. Checking the Show Directory in Numismatic News for your area should reveal shows just about every weekend within easy driving distance. There is the Internet auction alternative. Many buyers of the First Spouse gold coins turned right around and offered them on eBay even before they received delivery of the coins. Coins can be offered for sale to advertisers in Numismatic News. Give them a call, send them an e-mail or even write them a letter to tell them what you have and what price you might be looking for. These dealers might buy. They might not. They are busy. There are some dealers who run regular buy ads, so this would be the place to start. Other Numismatic News readers like the free classified ads that are given to subscribers. They enjoy the give and take. (It is as much fun to read what is for sale as it is to offer something for sale to others.) Collectors with larger holdings have even more options. They can consign their holdings to auction companies. They can ask a major dealer to meet them to discuss a purchase. Like a good football team, you need to practice both parts of the game, buying and selling, to maximize your hobby performance.
9/12/2007 9:04:31 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Tuesday, September 11, 2007
Now it is Wyoming's turn
Posted by Dave
When the state quarter program began in 1999, nobody knew if collector enthusiasm could be maintained for 50 coin designs issued over a span of 10 years. The 1992 Canadian program on which it was based was a success, but it lasted only a year and honored just 12 provinces and territories. What would happen over 10 years in the United States nobody knew. I didn’t know the answer either. I was enthusiastic about the program. I believed it would help inspire people to collect coins because the decision to collect is often taken following some sort of prompt given by receiving a specific piece in change. The more quarter designs out there for people to receive, the more possible prompting moments can occur. But like everyone, I wondered if interest could be sustained for 10 years. It seemed like a large challenge. Kids grow up. Adult interests and finances change. One thing I did recommend was that the U.S. Mint continue to treat each launch ceremony as if it were the first. The Mint probably needed no comment from me to do this, but I am pleased to say that when the Wyoming state quarter is released officially in Cheyenne at 10 a.m. on Friday, Sept. 14, Mint Director Ed Moy will join Gov. Dave Freudenthal and other dignitaries at the Civic Center. The planned event is worthy of the first issue. There will be just six ceremonies more after this event in Cheyenne, one more this year for Utah, and five next year. Then the program is over. Who would believe 10 years can go so fast? There are not enough congratulations to go to all the people who have made the state quarter program such a success. But the Mint should be recongized as an institution for giving every state its opportunity to celebrate its history as if it were the first state so honored. On Friday, it is the turn of the great state of Wyoming. Congratulations. The nation’s collectors will be watching.
9/11/2007 9:04:58 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Monday, September 10, 2007
How many troy ounces in a quart?
Posted by Dave
My job of delivering news to collectors is an ever challenging one. One aspect of it is to determine how much information is too much and how much is too little. That is not as easy as you might think. Consider some phone calls last week. One had to do with the Metals section on Page 4 that Numismatic News publishes every week. When markets are moving, collectors want to know what the reference point is. Advertisers put caveats in their print ads that bullion coin prices are subject to change without notice because of daily fluctuations. The prices on Page 4 provide a useful reference point as to what prices prevailed as the paper was being put together. Gold, silver, platinum and palladium have been there for years. In recent months staff decided to add nickel, copper and zinc because of all the stories we have been running when these base metals were hitting new highs. A phone caller asked what unit of weight was being quoted. I was startled. I admit I wanted to joke that gold isn’t sold by the quart, but I didn’t. The caller had a good question. Everyone has to find out this information at some point, but I had not figured on the possibility that even with the many published stories this year, someone would not know that copper, zinc and nickel trade by the avoirdupois pound and gold, silver, platinum and palladium trade by the troy ounce. Another caller said he had driven 500 miles to Wyoming for a debut of that state’s quarter because of a box on the Mint Statistics page that said, “Wyoming Quarter Release: Sept. 4, 2007.” The caller interpreted that as the ceremony date when it fact it was the date the coins were released to the banking system and when the Mint began to sell bags and rolls. When that box has been dropped out occasionally for space reasons, I get called by another reader who tells me he relies on that box. What to do? It is simply a signal to me that my work is never done. Every week is a new one with a potentially new audience and I must do my best to keep the veterans engaged and yet help bring others along on the grand ride that is this hobby.
9/10/2007 9:06:27 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Friday, September 07, 2007
Gold over $700, or not?
Posted by Dave
I had a head of steam up this morning to get to the office to write this blog. My chosen topic was gold going over $700 a troy ounce. I had scanned the headlines before I went home yesterday. They heralded the move. I didn’t look at them in depth. I come in this morning to find out that gold did not really close above $700 yesterday. Spot gold was $695.30. That is certainly a healthy increase from the $673 price it closed at last week, but it wasn’t the magic $700. What closed over $700 was a futures contract for delivery of gold. I don’t want to denigrate the importance of a futures contract, but when most people hear or see something, they think it applies to the here and now. Nowadays, though, you have to always look for the fine print or the gotcha line. Less and less news seems to follow what I consider to be the basic understanding that news is what happens, not what might happen. Nowadays it is always something potentially dangerous that has been found in our food, our water, our air, that could very well kill us all and we had better watch to find out just what it is. If you happen to watch, you often discover it is just a story hyped to get ratings larded with suppositions rather than actual fact, so fewer of us watch. Today’s gold trading may very well bring the spot price to close over $700. It is trading in that area as this is written. That would be the first time this has happened since May 12, 2006. This is significant in its own right. It should be ballyhooed when it happens. It seems to me that yesterday’s headlines simply were jumping the gun.
9/7/2007 9:14:50 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Thursday, September 06, 2007
New collecting season; same old problems
Posted by Dave
Two e-mails that arrived in the past week tell me that even though it is a new collecting season, the same old human nature dogs the hobby. One e-mail came from an outraged buyer who wanted to share his story as a warning to others. The other came from an outraged would-be seller who wanted to know who the American Numismatic Association thinks it is interfering in his online auction business. Let’s start with the buyer. He bought an MS-67 coin that was “professionally” graded by the Backyard Slabbing Service (I am not using the actual name here). He wanted to cross it over into a slab from one of the leading grading services, but didn’t want it put in a holder if it didn’t make at least MS-60. Well, it didn’t. He is upset. What this tells me is he probably got the coin for MS-60 money or less and was hoping to profit on his “real steal.” The steal, though, went against him. He claimed to be a longtime reader. If that is the case, it didn’t do him much good. Backyard Slabbing Service has never had an ad nor has it ever been mentioned in a story. That ought to speak volumes to him. If you never heard of it, perhaps a little caution is in order. Sure, new businesses spring up all the time and it might just be the one to take the market by storm. However if you are offered an MS-67 coin from a purported professional for MS-60 money or less, can you connect the dots here? If I remember the quote correctly, Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway fame said that if you play poker for 15 minutes and don’t know who the mark is, it’s you. Then there is the seller. He was offering to sell an error that could bring a high price. ANA intervened with the online auction firm because of what was claimed. The item was delisted. What does the ANA think it is doing interfering with business that way? Well, for one thing, it is the so-called consumer protection that everyone claims to want to have but so seldom ever seems to make itself evident in the marketplace. For another, from what information I was given, the ANA had good reason to act. Perhaps I do not know the whole story here, but you get the idea. In a free market, there are problems. The only true defense is education. Education cannot prevent all mistakes, but it reduces their frequency by enough to make this a very enjoyable hobby.
9/6/2007 8:59:43 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Wednesday, September 05, 2007
Are you the smartest or just want a prize?
Posted by Dave
What’s going to be hot in 2008? You can win a prize for your opinion. Do you think the recent First Spouse gold coin sellouts can continue? Will this year’s issues rise further in price? What about “W” mintmarked uncirculated platinum American Eagles or their gold and silver counterparts? These are just the new issues. What about regular collector coins that have been around for a while? We are getting ever closer to the 100th anniversary of the Lincoln cent. Can the key dates of the series, the 1909-S VDB, 1914-D, 1922 plain and 1931-S be next year’s rockets? Coin Market editor Harry Miller has already pointed out in his column that Lincoln prices are moving in response to demand related to the upcoming centennial. Will Barber coins outperform the Seated Liberty versions on a percentage basis? Will U.S. nickels be the place to be when a new composition is finally decided upon to replace an alloy that has been in use since 1866? Will Shield nickels and Liberty Heads race to the top, or will the ever popular Buffalo design beat them both? I get to think about these questions as we prepare to produce the 55th anniversary issue of Numismatic News. Price performance and the speculative element have always had a place in the life of the paper. Chet Krause remarked from time to time that the closure of the San Francisco Mint in 1955 helped boost interest in S-mint issues generally and the cent and dime of that year specifically. That boosted circulation and ad volume. No one knew then that San Francisco would soon be back at work less than 10 years in the future. I would like reader thoughts to be in the anniversary issue. Pick a coin and write a couple of sentences to explain why you think it will be hot in 2008. It couldn’t be easier. E-mail me your pick at david.harper@fwpubs.com. Identify yourself because there is a bonus. We are giving away a Liberty Head $20 gold piece and some current silver American Eagles for the best responses. The best part of this is there is no wrong answer. Who knows? Gold $20s might themselves be the place to be in 2008. What do you think? Let me know.
9/5/2007 9:01:12 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Tuesday, September 04, 2007
Bullion takes a rest
Posted by Dave
Gold and other precious metals were on my mind for a time during the Labor Day weekend. After the hot dogs, corn on the cob and the lawn mowing were over, I updated my price log. I haven’t done this since July 20, what with the preparations for the American Numismatic Association convention and its aftermath, including a vacation. While this is a purely mechanical process and some might think unnecessary in the computer age, it gives me a chance to play with the numbers and think about them. I have been doing this on an off for almost 40 years, starting when I delivered the Des Moines Register in 1968. What I find interesting about the numbers in the latest period is that gold ended almost where it began. On July 20 it was at $683.90 a troy ounce. On Aug. 31, it was $673. Yes, that is down $10.90, but that is hardly a blip on the radar in a market that fluctuates every business day. What was more interesting was platinum and silver. They were significantly weaker. Platinum dropped by 5.78 percent in the period while silver was down 9.4 percent. People who pay attention to the financial markets know how rocky it was for the stock and bond markets and they might conclude that the weakness in bullion was due at least in part to the turmoil on the world’s financial markets. That seems to be a logical conclusion. Another interesting tidbit is that the metals are reasonably close to where they were one year ago. Platinum is about $20 higher, silver is less than a dollar lower and gold is nearly $50 higher. That might qualify them as being stable, especially in a trading environment where they can jump up or drop that annual difference in just a day or two. Some numismatic collecting seasons are overshadowed by what bullion is doing. This doesn’t appear to be one of them.
9/4/2007 9:03:54 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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