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 Wednesday, September 05, 2007
Are you the smartest or just want a prize?
Posted by Dave
What’s going to be hot in 2008? You can win a prize for your opinion. Do you think the recent First Spouse gold coin sellouts can continue? Will this year’s issues rise further in price? What about “W” mintmarked uncirculated platinum American Eagles or their gold and silver counterparts? These are just the new issues. What about regular collector coins that have been around for a while? We are getting ever closer to the 100th anniversary of the Lincoln cent. Can the key dates of the series, the 1909-S VDB, 1914-D, 1922 plain and 1931-S be next year’s rockets? Coin Market editor Harry Miller has already pointed out in his column that Lincoln prices are moving in response to demand related to the upcoming centennial. Will Barber coins outperform the Seated Liberty versions on a percentage basis? Will U.S. nickels be the place to be when a new composition is finally decided upon to replace an alloy that has been in use since 1866? Will Shield nickels and Liberty Heads race to the top, or will the ever popular Buffalo design beat them both? I get to think about these questions as we prepare to produce the 55th anniversary issue of Numismatic News. Price performance and the speculative element have always had a place in the life of the paper. Chet Krause remarked from time to time that the closure of the San Francisco Mint in 1955 helped boost interest in S-mint issues generally and the cent and dime of that year specifically. That boosted circulation and ad volume. No one knew then that San Francisco would soon be back at work less than 10 years in the future. I would like reader thoughts to be in the anniversary issue. Pick a coin and write a couple of sentences to explain why you think it will be hot in 2008. It couldn’t be easier. E-mail me your pick at david.harper@fwpubs.com. Identify yourself because there is a bonus. We are giving away a Liberty Head $20 gold piece and some current silver American Eagles for the best responses. The best part of this is there is no wrong answer. Who knows? Gold $20s might themselves be the place to be in 2008. What do you think? Let me know.
9/5/2007 9:01:12 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Tuesday, September 04, 2007
Bullion takes a rest
Posted by Dave
Gold and other precious metals were on my mind for a time during the Labor Day weekend. After the hot dogs, corn on the cob and the lawn mowing were over, I updated my price log. I haven’t done this since July 20, what with the preparations for the American Numismatic Association convention and its aftermath, including a vacation. While this is a purely mechanical process and some might think unnecessary in the computer age, it gives me a chance to play with the numbers and think about them. I have been doing this on an off for almost 40 years, starting when I delivered the Des Moines Register in 1968. What I find interesting about the numbers in the latest period is that gold ended almost where it began. On July 20 it was at $683.90 a troy ounce. On Aug. 31, it was $673. Yes, that is down $10.90, but that is hardly a blip on the radar in a market that fluctuates every business day. What was more interesting was platinum and silver. They were significantly weaker. Platinum dropped by 5.78 percent in the period while silver was down 9.4 percent. People who pay attention to the financial markets know how rocky it was for the stock and bond markets and they might conclude that the weakness in bullion was due at least in part to the turmoil on the world’s financial markets. That seems to be a logical conclusion. Another interesting tidbit is that the metals are reasonably close to where they were one year ago. Platinum is about $20 higher, silver is less than a dollar lower and gold is nearly $50 higher. That might qualify them as being stable, especially in a trading environment where they can jump up or drop that annual difference in just a day or two. Some numismatic collecting seasons are overshadowed by what bullion is doing. This doesn’t appear to be one of them.
9/4/2007 9:03:54 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Friday, August 31, 2007
Where do they go from here?
Posted by Dave
Three up, three down. I feel like a baseball announcer. The Jefferson First Spouse half-ounce gold pieces that depict the Liberty Head design of the 1800-1808 half cent sold out in around two and a half hours yesterday. This was the third offering in the series. Collectors snapped up 20,000 proofs at $429.95 each and 20,000 uncirculateds at $410.95. The race to put them on eBay has begun. Buyers seemed to have turned the purchase process into a competitive sport, trading tips online as to how to game the system. Profit, of course, is the underlying motive, but there have been enough studies of individual behavior during auctions that I have to ask the question whether at least some of the buyers have completely lost sight of the basic question: does anybody really collect these? It is a game to buy them. It is a game to send them in to a grading service to get an MS-70 or Proof-70 grade attached. It is a game to describe them in terms that will most appeal to what seem to me to be unsophisticated potential buyers. However, all games end. Prices for the Martha Washington coins and the Abigail Adams coins are in decline. I had an e-mail this week asking what was going on with MS-70 Marthas, meaning why are prices falling? Perhaps holders of these coins are starting to feel like owners of subprime mortgages. Owning them may pay off over time, but then again, discretion is the better part of valor. Every buyer should examine the gold American Eagle series. Most of the coins trade basically as bullion pieces. The proof pieces have flatlined with a few notable exemptions. The same is likely to happen to the First Spouse coins. Gold coins that do not rise in value tie up a lot of money. Investors and other profit seekers are not emotionally tied to the process of actually assembling a set and being proud of owning it. It will be interesting to watch what happens to prices on eBay. There is enough of a shipping delay from the U.S. Mint that the coins may not gain much traction. Both have projected delivery dates in October. We’ll see.
8/31/2007 9:03:37 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Thursday, August 30, 2007
First Spouse opinion comes cheap
Posted by Dave
Will the third offering in the First Spouse gold coin series sell out when they go on sale at noon Eastern Daylight Time today? When the first two were offered in June, buyers snapped them up in approximately two hours, leaving some collectors shut out of the process. If I consider the results of the Numismatic News online poll that closed yesterday, I would have to forecast that a sellout is imminent. Only a minority of respondents, 38 percent, said they planned to buy the proof and uncirculated coins that carry the image of a Draped Bust half cent design used 1800-1808 during the time Thomas Jefferson was President of the United States. That minority, though, is enough to ensure a sellout. Because Jefferson was a widower when he was in the White House, the numismatic design was chosen to represent this period. Martha Washington and Abigail Adams were on the first two issues and Dolley Madison with be on this year’s fourth issue. Rather than base a forecast solely on the poll, would-be buyers will have to consider the steps the Mint is taking to assure maximum fairness and availability. Only one unc. and one proof can be acquired per household. That is a reduction in the order limit from the five imposed in June. Overall mintage is 40,000, which evenly split means 20,000 buyers can grab the whole issue. That doesn’t sound like a large number but it requires some $16.8 million in expenditures by buyers. That is still a large amount of money for the hobby. Another consideration is totals. I find it interesting that three First Spouse sellouts would add up to 60,000 troy ounces of gold. That is almost double the amount of gold currently on the market for 2007 proof Buffaloes and it nearly equals the amount of gold in the 2007 bullion Buffaloes sold to investors. These numbers seem to imply that the Mint is becoming a custom minting institution existing for the pleasure of meeting collector desires for esoteric coins that have no basis in the real economy. That doesn’t mean the third First Spouse coins won’t sell out. It also may be a desirable state of affairs for the Mint, because the profits are higher for collector coin sales. What do I really think? My gut tells me they will sell out – perhaps not in one day – but since I am not planning to buy any, my opinion is a cheap one.
8/30/2007 9:06:40 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Wednesday, August 29, 2007
Hmm, these letters look familiar
Posted by Dave
Anybody who has read this blog regularly this month knows I have been on the road an awful lot lately. The total is 17 days between the American Numismatic Association convention in Milwaukee, Wis., and my journey to Costa Rica. As you might guess, when I am away, there are things that I cannot personally attend to – including chores at home, but that’s another story. My point today is the Letters column in Numismatic News. Apparently the contents of the Aug. 21 issue were so stupendously good that many of them ran again in the Aug. 28 issue. For that, I apologize to one and all. This should not have happened. On the brighter note, I am receiving e-mails and letters pointing out the mistake, which will fill some of the future Letters columns. I even fielded a phone call from a concerned reader. It is gratifying to me that the Letters section is considered important enough that these concerns are expressed. Readers opinions are important to me. They are important to other readers. My view is they are the heart of the newspaper. They are the pulse of life for the hobby. Don’t ever be bashful about pointing out my mistakes. That is one of the reasons the Letters section exists in the first place. You won’t hurt my feelings – well, OK, sometimes you might, but I am a professional and it is my intention to make sure all sides are heard from. One reader told me at the ANA convention that the only thing his wife reads in Numismatic News is the Letters section. Obviously we collectors have something going on when we can sustain the interest of someone who doesn’t take an interest in coins. Keep those e-mails and letters coming. I’ll keep working until I get it right. I’ll keep working until I get it right. I’ll keep working until I get it right ... Oops, there I go again.
8/29/2007 8:58:42 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Tuesday, August 28, 2007
My money is on the new edition
Posted by Dave
If you were ill, would you want to consult a medical textbook from 1940? What if your 2007 Chevy needed repair? Should the mechanic look at a 1940 owner’s manual? Dumb questions, right? Well, I get some peculiar mail from time to time, but it happens often enough that it occurs to me to comment here. In my mail yesterday I received a letter that included a copy of a page from a 1940 Iowa Numismatic Association convention folder. The writer highlighted a Silver Certificate listing for a star replacement note. The writer wanted to know why it was listed that way. Fortunately, I have an answer, but consulting 67-year-old texts for anything other than historical purposes is just asking for trouble. The staff of the Standard Catalog of World Coins get inquiries about missing listings or errors in listings all of the time. The senders are very helpful in pointing out problems that creep into the database every time the computer decides to hiccup. However, the staff also gets comments on things that appeared in catalogs from 10, 15 or 20 years ago. These aren’t particularly helpful. A simple check of a current edition would reveal whether the problem was corrected. No collector I know or who I have ever been in contact with has demanded to sell his material at 1940 prices because the current price guides must be wrong. Why the mental glitch when it comes to simple information? The hobbyists of 1940 did their best. They bequeathed us a rich legacy that the present generation of collectors has vastly improved upon. However, that 2007 catalog we are so proud of today will be just as obsolete come 2074 as the 1940 listing is now. Not all old information is bad information, but when the texts diverge, you will win more often relying on the new books than on the old.
8/28/2007 9:03:49 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Monday, August 27, 2007
Back where I want to be
Posted by Dave
I am back from my vacation. I always regret that the time goes by so swiftly, but I also feel a great curiosity as to what has been going on while I have ceased to pay attention to the happenings in the numismatic field. It also is simply nice to come home, especially when the flight connections work as well as they did for me yesterday. A 5 a.m. taxi ride to the airport started my day. My flight from San Jose, Costa Rica, took off on time. We left the gate at 7:25 a.m. I got back to Iola at 9:30 in the evening. Costa Rica during the summer is one hour behind Iola. This trip I had an odd connection. I went from San Jose to Miami, then to Charlotte, N.C., on a regional jet. This is the first time I ever passed through this airport on my way home from Costa Rica, but the summer travel season fills up the planes on the main routes and Charlotte was an alternative route that actually cost me less money than going directly to Chicago. What’s more, my arrival time in Green Bay, Wis., was not affected at all. More connections mean more possiblities for delay or misrouting baggage, but I had no delays and no lost baggage. Everything went like clockwork. I had my nose buried in a book the whole way. Paul Green’s wife had given me the paperback The Da Vinci Code. It was in English and she had no use for it. I had not read it during the craze, so I finally got to find out what the hoopla was about. I enjoyed it. It certainly made the time pass quickly. I had seen the movie, so the plot was not a mystery to me. I have to admire the way the writer constructed it. For me it was easy to read. I like that. I hope what I write is as easily read. I feel rusty this morning and stiff from sitting in airline seats. I have some catching up to do here in the office as I listen to my recorded voice messages and look at acccumulated e-mails. My recorded voice message tends to keep the number of messages left for me to a minimum. I always state that I am away. I give the date of my return and tell the listener that I will return calls when I get back. Few callers want to wait, so I am generally off the hook with two or three calls. E-mail is another matter. It is relentless. The sooner I start, the sooner I can finish. Wish me luck, but please don’t send it by e-mail today.
8/27/2007 9:00:49 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Friday, August 24, 2007
Time to go already?
Posted by dave
Did I do anything other than work while I was in Costa Rica? Sure. I relaxed. I got up when I felt like it and not when an alarm called me to a new day. I ate leisurely breakfasts and drank wonderful Costa Rican coffee. I even kept my eye on CNBC. Even on vacation I like to follow the financial news. There was sunshine in the morning. That felt good. It would feel better in January, but I had other reasons to be here this month. In my spare moments I finished a book about Robert E. Lee. It is based on his letters. It was somewhat difficult to read because I have been busy since I bought it in July and have absorbed it in snippets. Also, it is not in chronological order exactly. It skips around a bit. I didn’t know he was an engineer who tried to modify the flow of the Mississippi around St. Louis to prevent the port from silting up. I didn’t know he was commandant at West Point and built the stables for cavalry there. I have a little time left to do other things, though the thought of my Sunday departure is already looming in my thinking. Costa Rica is a great country to visit. Time here goes by too quickly, but I have to be back in the office Monday morning.
8/24/2007 9:32:32 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Thursday, August 23, 2007
Visit the Gold Museum
Posted by dave
No trip to Costa Rica would be complete without a visit to the Central Bank’s Gold Museum and its curator Manuel Chacon. He is on the Coin of the Year panel of judges and I want to take the time to tell him that we at World Coin News are in the process of revamping the Coin of the Year process to speed it up and to make it even more prestigious than it already is. As I said at the Coin of the Year Award presentation Aug. 8 at the American Numismatic Association convention in Milwaukee, Wis., the world’s mints have advanced incredibly from where they were 25 years ago. It is time for the award to be put into a new suit of clothes as well. It should be an award worthy of the world mints of today. Chacon has put the Gold Museum in San Jose on the map. He gets inquiries and visitors from all over the world because of the activities and exhibits that he mounts for the public. Some of this has been due to articles in World Coin News. The William Walker exhibit is about to go off display in September after it spent a year celebrating the 150th anniversary of the end of Walker’s invasion of Costa Rica. Walker’s bad luck in Costa Rica eventually affected all that he did and he was executed on a beach in Honduras in 1860. Walker wanted to establish a slave empire, but Costa Rica was full of independent farmers and ranchers. His ambitions were thwarted when they successfully resisted. That spirit of plucky self-determination and self-help in the 20th century led the country to abolish its army. To see this and other aspects of the cultural heritage of the country, visit the Gold Museum.
8/23/2007 10:23:37 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Wednesday, August 22, 2007
Catch him if you can
Posted by dave
I have a lunch planned with the president of the Costa Rican Numismatic Association. Mauricio Soto is a young and very active collector. He is a busy employee of an international engineering firm with a wife and two young boys. He travels a lot. I am fortunate to find him in the country this week. I happened to see him last month at the Memphis paper money show. He had not planned to be there, but on Saturday night, there he was. I bumped into him in the bar just off the hotel lobby. He had come in just the day before because he had gotten a special airline deal. I told him I was planning a visit to Costa Rica in August and our lunch plans flowed directly from that conversation. As I say, he is very busy, but he always seems to find time for numismatics. He would like to write some articles for Bank Note Reporter or World Coin News. He wants to talk about the details. He is concerned that we North Americans might forget the Costa Ricans and the connections that Paul Green helped to establish. I expect we can work something out easily enough except that I cannot give him a 25- or 26-hour day so that he can expand his activity level. That said, he is going to be the man to know in Costa Rica for many years to come.
8/22/2007 9:02:44 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Tuesday, August 21, 2007
From cemetery to grill
Posted by dave
One more sad note to record. I went to the cemetery where Paul Green is buried yesterday. It was the one-year anniversary of his death. The cemetery is little more than five minutes away from his widow’s house by automobile. Paul’s grave is a small tomb. It is above ground, likely made of cement, but it is glazed with a beautiful white, off-white tile. It is the rainy season, so everything is alive and green around it. Mayela and I went with Irina, an 8-year-old granddaughter that she is raising. It was a bit somber and a time for reflection. For Mayela, the pain of loss is still real, but dulled some by the passage of time. She called Paul, pollito, which means little chicken, and even had a tiny little bird put on the bottom of a bronze plaque for him. This caused a problem with the cemetery authorities. I guess little chickens are not quite the appropriate funeral thing here in Costa Rica. But a little chicken is an appropriate memorial to Paul’s sense of humor. He was always joking and laughing, especially at his own infirmities before he died. He called his cane “Barney.” He was writing prolifically at the end. He said he was in the groove. He had a routine. He would sit at the computer as long as he was physically able. He would rest. Then he would pick up again at his trusty typewriter. He wasn’t a technophobe. It was simply his body couldn’t take the seated posture at the computer for as long as he wanted to write. Apparently the typewriter kept him in a somewhat different posture using somewhat different muscles so he could continue banging away until around four in the afternoon. At that point, he would adjourn to the patio, open a beer and make preparations for outdoor grilling. Paul was a maestro at it. Costa Rican weather permits it for most of the year. This year I grilled the pork chops and honored his memory.
8/21/2007 9:01:46 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Monday, August 20, 2007
Have you ever been to Costa Rica?
Posted by dave
I’m on vacation. I have traveled to the Central American country of Costa Rica. I am never too far away from numismatics, though. One of my missions this week was to carry down two Numismatic Literary Guild Award plaques that Paul Green was given Aug. 9 during the NLG Bash at the American Numismatic Association convention in Milwaukee. They were given to his widow to join other plaques that Paul had won that are hanging on her living room wall. Paul won this year for the weekly “Item of the Week” column in Numismatic News as the best continuing series of articles on coins in a numismatic newspaper. He also won for his three-part William Walker series in World Coin News. William Walker is a national topic in Costa Rica. He was an American who took over the government of Nicaragua and then invaded Costa Rica in 1856. He was beaten back across the border thanks in part to a brave teenager named Juan Santamaria who volunteered to carry a torch while under gun fire to the house in which Walker was holed up with his men. The house was burned, driving Walker out, but Santamaria was killed at the age of 17. His bravery is remembered. There are statues to him in Costa Rica. He has appeared on Costa Rican bank notes. The main airport just outside the capital of San Jose is named for him. He has a holiday. The William Walker series in World Coin News tried to do justice to the historical topic and apparently the NLG judges believed it did. Mayela, Paul’s widow, is happy to see her husband’s work is valued by others. I am happy to have been the bearer of good news.
8/20/2007 9:14:54 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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