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 Thursday, May 03, 2007
Does gold work as inflation hedge?
Posted by Dave
As I drove to work this morning, I noticed that the price of a gallon of gasoline had jumped a dime overnight to $3.099 a gallon. That wasn’t exactly a surprise, because the morning news shows that I watch as I eat breakfast were full of stories about the high cost of gasoline around the United States. The entry points for foreign imports, New Jersey and South Carolina, enjoy the lowest prices. They are at $2.81, almost 30 cents lower than the price is here in central Wisconsin. I pondered a minute and patted myself on the back for having lived through the 1990s without ever having succumbed to the temptation of buying an SUV. I would hate to have to foot the bill for a fill-up of those vehicles now. But there is no question that they look good on the road and make you feel like you are in total control. Here in Iola the last time gasoline was under $1 a gallon was in December 1998. I remember that. Why? Well, I could give you some blather about being diligent. Editors do like to collect facts that they can later write about and the price of gasoline is always a popular news topic if it is rising. I remember the price because I had done a lot of driving in the autumn of 1998, more than usual, and I was consistently paying less than a dollar. When it popped over that mark, I said to myself that I would probably never see it that cheap again. So far, I am right. There was a parallel experience that I had when I was a very young child in the late 1950s. I suppose it could even have been 1960. Anyway, there was a gas war in the city of St. Paul, Minn., where I lived at the time. My father and my uncle took me over to a gas station that had a sign posted: 19.9 cents a gallon. They said. “Look at this. You will never see it lower again in your lifetime." So for nearly 50 years, they have been right. All of this is a roundabout way of getting to the topic of gold as an inflation hedge. Is it? Well, let’s see. If we take the gold price of 1959 of $35 an ounce, we find that it is now 19.2 times higher. Gasoline from that gas war sign to the current price in Iola is up 15.5 times. Pretty good for gold. The 1998 comparison shows gasoline up by 3.1 times since then while gold has risen by a factor of 2.3. This latter performance is not as good, but it is a reminder that we live our lives day by day and not at some average rate. If you need a hedge against inflation, you could do worse than owning a little gold. Naturally, do this in the form of collectible gold coins.
5/3/2007 3:30:03 PM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Wednesday, May 02, 2007
Hey, we'll do another one. Really
Posted by Dave
Groucho Marx said he would never belong to a club that would accept him as a member. That kind of perverse reaction to an engraved invitation comes to mind when I opened the mail. I received a letter from someone who was complaining about not being in the Num  ismatics Industry Directory that Numismatic News recently published. I am not alone in my receipt of communications of this type. Most of these letters and e-mails, though, are going to the ad department. The odd thing is, as the ad department checks into each and every contact of this kind, nearly all of the complainers were contacted, sometimes multiple times. They turned down the opportunity. Apparently, the directory now is a hit. I am glad. The ad department will work very hard to get dealers into the next issue of the Numismatics Industry Directory. There seems to be no greater incentive to do something than suddenly feeling left out. There is a social value of being seen in the company of one’s peers. There is also the inevitable question from newcomers posed to someone in the business of why their name is not in the directory if they are who they say they are. The staff here doesn’t try to make life difficult, but if someone turns down the opportunity of taking out an ad and doesn’t act on the offer of a free listing, it becomes a matter where the ad staff cannot save the person from himself. The lesson for everyone is that the next time you react to an offer quickly, perhaps you should put it aside for 24 hours and take a look at it again. Sure, you are probably right 90 percent of the time, but just maybe there is an offer like the one we made to dealers to get in on the ground floor of a new Numismatics Industry Directory. Just maybe that offer is worth a second look and a resounding “Yes” in response. Think about it.
5/2/2007 9:37:51 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Tuesday, May 01, 2007
Center of universe right here
Posted by dave
“Don’t you know I’m the center of the universe?” I will occasionally exclaim to a new staffer when some chain of events goes more less like I said it would ahead of time. Am I full of myself? Maybe, but after sitting in this office for almost 30 years, at times it does seem like we are at the center of events. When something happens, I want people to contact Numismatic News. This can be a club election or the sale of a 1913 Liberty Head nickel. It doesn’t matter. It is news of interest to my readers. It is my job to get the information and to inform my readers both in print and online. I am fortunate if people know who I am. It is not their job to memorize the staff chart of Numismatic News. Remembering the paper is all that is necessary, but there is usually something more. People like flesh and blood. They relate better to real people with real names and real lives and experiences. For much of my time in this chair, I worked for the founder of the company, Chester L. Krause and his lieutenant, Clifford Mishler. Over the years, their titles changed, but Chet and Cliff were the names and faces that most hobbyists remembered. Chet officially retired for the first time in 1988. Cliff retired in 2000, but to the outside world, Chet and Cliff were the faces of the paper. Something happened to me along about 1998. I don’t remember what exactly, but I was having a conversation with a hobbyist who had been following the company for many years. He knew Chet. He knew Cliff. Our conversation was his attempt to get to know me. He asked how long I had been with the company. “20 years,” I replied. He was flabbergasted. I just had never made it into his permanent memory. All he needed was to remembeer Chet and Cliff. The supporting staff was more or less unimportant. I thought it was funny at the time, but it was my job for many years to make the hobby know that Chet and Cliff were on top of things in the hobby. I did it to the best of my ability. Chet and Cliff have been retired from these premises long enough now that my name comes up more and more. “Don’t you know that I am the center of the universe?” Yes, I am, but only because Chet and Cliff put me here.
5/1/2007 9:04:32 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Monday, April 30, 2007
Mondays inspire me. Don't believe me? Read this
Posted by dave
The song says “rainy days and Mondays always get me down.” Not me. I like Mondays. For me Mondays are like opening birthday presents. You never know what might be in the brightly wrapped packages and little card envelopes. Because I happen to like Mondays doesn't mean that come Friday afternoon I am not quietly muttering TGIF to myself. However, Mondays in the rhythm of this editor’s life are very important. Take the mail. The stagecoach reaches Iola, Wis., and unloads on Mondays. I probably get more snail mail on Mondays than any two other days combined. At certain times of the month, it is probably closer to any three other days of the week. It is interesting to skim through the club bulletins, fliers and hard copy letters to the editor that come my way. Monday morning e-mail is also a treat. Messages have been accumulating since I left the office on Friday. I try not to take my work home with me on weekends. Call me a dinosaur but I still try to maintain some boundaries between work life and home life. When I am at shows or on vacation, Dave Kranz reads my e-mail and takes action for me. He knows the rules of the publishing road as well as I do and he can act in my place. He can even sign replies “Dave,” and no one would know the difference. We don’t really do that, but if we ever get someone so hot and bothered that they have to have a reply from “Dave” while I am, say, in Central America, Dave Kranz can provide the reply. Fortunately, that necessity almost never happens. Most people are just as happy to deal with Dave Kranz as with Dave Harper. They are glad there are real, live persons on this end of the electronic highway. Even though the Internet was supposed to make news a 24/7 happening, in real life it doesn’t happen that way. Much like matter in space, news tends to glom together (Yes, I just read a bio of Albert Einstein). There is the Wednesday effect. That is for phone calls. For some reason, few people seem to want to phone on any other day of the week. While I am trying to lay out Page 1 of Numismatic News, I get deluged with calls from people who want to find out who wrote a letter that appeared three months ago, or they want to know what MS-65 means in the Coin Market price guide. Serious people tend not to call on Wednesdays, unless of course, they are returning phone calls from the staff. Why is that? I don’t know. Perhaps there is a self-help book somewhere that says answers are more easily obtained on Wednesdays. Otherwise, why this happens beats me. But as I said earlier there is a rhythm to the life of an editor. Some of it is imposed by our own internal schedule. However, that schedule was set up in the first place to most nearly reflect the rhythm of the hobby. Fortunately for me, people still need to eat and sleep at regular times and that means my life is a little more predictable than the 24/7 potential news cycle would imply.
4/30/2007 12:02:20 PM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Friday, April 27, 2007
Educate yourself about errors
Posted by dave
Are you stupid? I don’t think so, but over the years I have made some observations about human behavior.  The new Washington plain-edge dollar error is a wonderful discovery. It gets people looking at the new coins in hopes of making a marketing killing. One fellow has already showed me a check for over $4,100 that he earned by selling a group of plain-edge Washington dollars to a dealer. That kind of money is enough to gain anyone’s attention – and it has. But that also is a problem. When a valuable error is discovered, people look at their coins. They then notice other things that are a little odd or different. If a plain-edge coin can be worth so much money, why not the mysterious line on another dollar that kind of looks like a spear? Why not a line caused by a die crack that looks like a crease across the forehead of the first President? Why not, indeed. At root is the significance test. Most of these anomalies, which the numismatic hobby calls errors, fail this test, but when coins can be posted in online auctions, a plausible story can earn a profit while actual research or learning is just too much trouble especially when it leads to finding out why a coin has no extra value. The recent run of postings of so-called upside down edge lettering got so much online momentum despite repeated news stories that they are not errors that the U.S. Mint had to jump in and issue a consumer alert to inform would-be buyers that the lettering is random, with roughly half up and half down. Are the letter orientations on the Washington coins collectible? Absolutely. The difference is notable. The Professional Coin Grading Service announced today that it is slabbing both and correctly advised collectors that neither is inherently worth any extra money over the other. For errors in general, keep in mind that most coins have something wrong with them if you look hard enough. They are the products of the Industrial Age and they are prone to industrial quality control problems. Clever names for errors usually mean that the error is not significant enough to stand on its own. It needs a marketing push. Don’t fall for it. I ask again, “Are you stupid?” If you are not educating yourself about what makes some errors valuable and most others valueless over time, the answer might be yes. Grading services want to help you. The hobby’s error experts do, too. But you also have to want to help yourself. For more information, visit www.pcgs.com
4/27/2007 9:46:56 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Tuesday, April 24, 2007
Why invest when you can collect gold?
Posted by dave
Do you worship gold? Some might find such a question sacriligious. It can be. But it is one every would-be gold investor needs to ask himself.
If you look at gold with veneration and treat it like an eternal monetary truth, you will get burned. There are good times to buy and then sell it profitably. There are bad times to buy it.
If you had purchased gold Jan. 21, 1980, at the $850 an ounce peak, you would still be under water 27 years later. Clearly that wouldn’t have been a smart move.
That’s why as editor of Numismatic News I have always recommended that persons interested in gold investment do it the intelligent way: collect it. You can get nearly one full ounce of gold in a $20 Liberty Head gold piece, or a $20 Saint-Gaudens.
If you try to collect one of each date and mintmark of the Liberty Head series, you have 153 coins to choose from. Some are rare enough that you would not consider their purchase a gold investment. Many of the dates though, are little more than metallic value in all grades except the top uncirculated grades.
Using round numbers, 100 Liberty Head $20s would be almost 100 troy ounces of gold worth $69,000 at present bullion prices. That can satisfy all but the richest gold buyers. As an investment, some experts recommend no more than 10 percent of a portfolio in gold. Many others say the cap should be 5 percent. That means 100 Liberty $20s can satisfy investment portfolios ranging from $690,000 to $1.38 million.
The danger, of course, is that once you start treating your gold investment as a collection, you might just want to start buying the rare dates and take your chances with the numismatic marketplace. Is that bad? I don’t think so. My evidence is a lot in the March Heritage Auction Galleries at the American Numismatic Asssociation Convention. An MS-67 1920-S $10 gold piece purchased for $85,000 in June 1979 sold for $1.725 million. That’s a much better performance than gold bullion put in during the period. Think about it.
4/24/2007 1:01:53 PM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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