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Worst forecast record ever for year

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I have always freely acknowledged that I am an optimist. That seems to have become my major flaw as I assess last year’s 10 forecasts for the year 2013.

If you can stand my being incorrect so often, let us now walk through what looks like my worst performance ever. If I put the kindest spin possible on my forecasts I can probably claim to be correct on three out of 10.

My father, a retired accountant, might be proud of me for putting so many specific numbers in my predictions for 2013. As for me, that is what pretty well helped hang me out to dry.

Are you ready?

1. My first forecast had no specific number, for which I am grateful. I said 2013 was going to be an unexpectedly good year as average proof set buyers and mid-range buyers return to numismatics. I count this as correct though the year was not a gangbusters one.

2. I said the Walton 1913 Liberty nickel would sell for $4 million or more. It sold for $3.2 million, so I was wrong.

3. I said the American Numismatic Association’s electronic election voting would be judged a success. It was, but it was a quiet success that will be built upon in the future.

4. I suggested that the Larry Shepherd lawsuit against ANA would be settled out of court. It wasn’t.

5. I should have stopped after I wrote that silver Eagle bullion coin sales would rise, but darn it, I put numbers on it: I said more than 2012’s 33,742,500 but less than 2011’s 39,868,500. The number was 42,675,000. So I was wrong, or half right if you say 2013 sales were more than 2012. Just kidding.

6. I said the Mint would sell between 667,000 and 910,000 one-ounce gold American Eagles in 2013. The figure was 743,500, so I got one number forecast right.
Now I have to swallow hard.

7. After years of being a naysayer, I said silver would go up from its $30.173 2012 close. It did not. The 2013 close was $19.339. I was wrong.

8. Ditto gold; I forecast a rise from $1,674.80. The close was $1,201.90. Wrong again.

9. Here is where being precise really bit me. Gold and platinum’s price was neck and neck when I forecast that platinum would be at a 20 percent premium to gold by year end. I was right on direction, but the premium only grew to 15 percent. So I have to count this as wrong.

10. My final forecast noted that 9.34 billion coins were struck by the Mint for circulation in 2012. I said the number would be 11 billion in 2013. I didn’t write about 11 billion, I just wrote 11 billion. The number came in at 11.9 billion. Again I might say I was close, but my level of precision tripped me up.

Had I inserted weasel words in No. 5, 9 and 10 I could have claimed victory as I had the trends right.

Had I stayed stubborn about gold and silver, I would have had two more right.

So instead of my best year ever, I registered my worst.

 

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