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Take my 10 forecasts

This article was originally printed in the latest issue of Numismatic News.
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Remember Harold Stassen? He made a reputation as the boy wonder governor of Minnesota 1939-1943 and then ran for President over and over and over. He became a recurring political joke.

At the risk of becoming the gold market’s Harold Stassen, I am going to once again forecast that gold will decline this year.

“There he goes again,” you might say as you roll your eyes, but I still believe gold has gotten ahead of its long-term fundamentals.

Silver, too, will follow gold lower. It had a heck of a run September to December 2010. Buyers have piled in because there seems so little of it – at least that is the current story, but if everyone piled into Iola property, it would go through the roof, too, because there is so little of it relative to the dollars in the hands of worldwide investors. The logic is too thin. If there is a better case for silver, I haven’t seen it.

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Now for an easy one. You don’t want me going 0-10 this year on predictions, do you?

No. 3. I think the 2010 America the Beautiful 5-ounce sandblasted numismatic issue to be sold by the Mint this year will sell out. The 27,000 set limit is lower than the 33,000-set quantity of bullion examples.

Further, as forecast No. 4, I think some of the nine Authorized Purchasers of the bullion version will drop out when the 2011 versions are sold.

No. 5. This will be a good year for the collector hobby as will be evidenced by the success of the first autumn American Numismatic Association National Money Show in Pittsburgh. I can’t wait to go.

No. 6. Repeal of the 1099 form requirement on business purchases of more than $600 value from anyone will occur. This will help spur on an optimistic numismatic outlook.

No. 7. What will all these happy numismatists be focusing on? Morgan silver dollars. It is time the old favorite got its second wind and started partying like the 1980s.

No. 8. The new U.S. Mint director will be selected and will be from the coin hobby. (No, I am not a candidate, though I share the collector illusion that it must be a dream job.)

No. 9. The Mint will have difficulty creating the new palladium one-ounce bullion coin that will have the A.A. Weinman Mercury dime design. At least no one will quibble about whether it is good art.

No. 10. It will be another good year for the U.S. dollar. It won’t soar, but neither will it fall. The consequence will be that hard-working individual coin collectors will feel less guilty about buying – Morgan dollars, of course – but also true collector coins that interest them without feeling like they are acting in a way that threatens the family’s finances. We are going to begin to feel that we have left the aftermath of the Lehman crash behind us.

Those are my 10 forecasts. I’ve got my crash helmet on, so send those cards, letters and e-mails to me at 700 E. State St., Iola, WI 54990. E-mail me at david.harper@fwmedia.com.

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